luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 4, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Kraken at Oilers, Dec 4, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Kraken 9–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 37 points of win probability to the Oilers.

The biggest swing (P1, 12:43 left): Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 32 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final

Seattle Kraken 4
Edmonton Oilers 9

December 4, 2025 · Rogers Place

Luck index +52 Oilers lucky · −52 Kraken

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kraken win 5, Oilers win 5.

  1. 1 SEA 7 EDM 2
  2. 2 SEA 7 EDM 4
  3. 3 SEA 6 EDM 4
  4. 4 SEA 5 EDM 4
  5. 5 SEA 4 EDM 3
  6. 6 SEA 1 EDM 2
  7. 7 SEA 2 EDM 3
  8. 8 SEA 6 EDM 8
  9. 9 SEA 1 EDM 4
  10. 10 SEA 3 EDM 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kraken win 52% of them, Oilers 48%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kraken by 3+25.0%
Kraken by 28.7%
Kraken by 118.6%
Oilers by 118.8%
Oilers by 28.8%
Oilers by 3+20.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 goals to the Oilers: the final margin was Oilers by 5, without the luck Oilers by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Kraken5243.86+0.14
Oilers4493.25+5.75

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:40 Delaying game puck over glass on the Kraken (Ryker Evans): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
P1 5:53 Tripping on the Oilers (Andrew Mangiapane): 2 minutes on the power play +2% SEA
P2 17:40 Cross checking on the Oilers (Connor Clattenburg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 16:17 Tripping on the Oilers (Adam Henrique): 2 minutes on the power play +3% SEA
P2 15:25 Slashing on the Kraken (Brandon Montour): 2 minutes on the power play +3% EDM
P3 13:49 High sticking double minor on the Kraken (Brandon Montour): 4 minutes on the power play 0% EDM
P3 12:50 Hooking on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power play 0% EDM

When it happened

Oilers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Oilers were ahead in it, below while the Kraken were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 12:43 Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 5% chance +15% EDM –
2 P1 12:26 Vasily Podkolzin scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 2% chance +13% EDM –
3 P1 8:33 Leon Draisaitl scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 15% chance +7% EDM –
4 P1 3:53 Eeli Tolvanen scored on a slap shot from 33 feetShooting · 13% chance +8% SEA –
5 P1 0:27 Frederick Gaudreau scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance +12% SEA –
6 P2 17:40 Cross checking on the Oilers (Connor Clattenburg): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% SEA –
7 P2 17:32 Matt Savoie scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 10% chance +13% EDM –
8 P2 13:46 Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 21 feetShooting · 5% chance +8% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kraken 27% · Oilers 73%

Final margin
Oilers by 5
Luck in goals
4.2 for the Oilers
Luck-adjusted margin
Oilers by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Kraken 52% · Oilers 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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