luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 1, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Blues, Dec 1, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Blues 4–1, but the replays lean toward the Blues: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 29 points of win probability to the Ducks.

The biggest swing (P1, 13:27 left): Mason McTavish scored on a wrist shot from 48 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final

Anaheim Ducks 4
St. Louis Blues 1

December 1, 2025 · Enterprise Center

Luck index +62 Ducks very lucky · −62 Blues

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 4, Blues win 6.

  1. 1 ANA 4 STL 1
  2. 2 ANA 4 STL 2
  3. 3 ANA 2 STL 1
  4. 4 ANA 3 STL 2
  5. 5 ANA 1 STL 2
  6. 6 ANA 0 STL 1
  7. 7 ANA 0 STL 2
  8. 8 ANA 3 STL 6
  9. 9 ANA 1 STL 4
  10. 10 ANA 2 STL 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Ducks win 38% of them, Blues 62%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+9.5%
Ducks by 28.1%
Ducks by 120.2%
Blues by 123.2%
Blues by 213.7%
Blues by 3+25.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 3, without the luck Ducks by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks3931.84+1.16
Blues3612.98−1.98

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:26 High sticking on the Blues (Oskar Sundqvist): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P1 11:46 Tripping on the Ducks (Ross Johnston): 2 minutes on the power play +4% STL
P1 0:37 Interference on the Ducks (Mason McTavish): 2 minutes on the power play +4% STL
P2 17:53 High sticking on the Ducks (Troy Terry): 2 minutes on the power play +4% STL
P2 17:35 Slashing on the Blues (Oskar Sundqvist): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 12:57 Slashing on the Blues (Dalibor Dvorsky): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 6:54 Tripping on the Ducks (Frank Vatrano): 2 minutes on the power play +5% STL
P3 12:14 Slashing on the Ducks (Alex Killorn): 2 minutes on the power play +2% STL
P3 9:22 Tripping on the Ducks (Cutter Gauthier): 2 minutes on the power play +2% STL

When it happened

Blues’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blues were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:27 Mason McTavish scored on a wrist shot from 48 feetShooting · 1% chance +17% ANA –
2 P1 13:07 Jordan Kyrou scored on a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 22% chance +13% STL –
3 P1 9:36 Pavel Mintyukov scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% ANA –
4 P2 17:35 Slashing on the Blues (Oskar Sundqvist): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% ANA –
5 P2 12:57 Slashing on the Blues (Dalibor Dvorsky): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% ANA –
6 P2 6:54 Tripping on the Ducks (Frank Vatrano): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% STL –
7 P3 16:55 Jordan Kyrou’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance +9% ANA –
8 P3 14:02 Leo Carlsson scored on a tip from 11 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 58% · Blues 42%

Final margin
Ducks by 3
Luck in goals
2.8 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Ducks by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 38% · Blues 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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