luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 4, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Predators at Panthers, Dec 4, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Predators beat the Panthers 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Predators.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Predators won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Predators.

Final (OT)

Nashville Predators 2
Florida Panthers 1

December 4, 2025 · Amerant Bank Arena

Luck index +53 Predators lucky · −53 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Predators win 5, Panthers win 5.

  1. 1 NSH 9 FLA 5
  2. 2 NSH 4 FLA 1
  3. 3 NSH 5 FLA 3
  4. 4 NSH 6 FLA 5
  5. 5 NSH 8 FLA 7
  6. 6 NSH 2 FLA 3
  7. 7 NSH 6 FLA 7
  8. 8 NSH 2 FLA 4
  9. 9 NSH 5 FLA 8
  10. 10 NSH 1 FLA 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Predators win 47% of them, Panthers 53%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Predators by 3+21.1%
Predators by 29.2%
Predators by 117.0%
Panthers by 119.3%
Panthers by 29.6%
Panthers by 3+23.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 goals to the Predators: the final margin was Predators by 1, without the luck Predators by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Predators4513.77−2.77
Panthers4113.59−2.59

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:29 Tripping on the Panthers (Brad Marchand): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P1 1:52 Interference on the Predators (Matthew Wood): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 16:57 Tripping on the Panthers (A.J. Greer): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NSH
P2 13:57 High sticking on the Predators (Steven Stamkos): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 9:30 High sticking double minor on the Predators (Nick Blankenburg): 4 minutes on the power play +8% FLA
P2 4:12 Hooking on the Predators (Spencer Stastney): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P2 0:04 Slashing on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH
P3 17:30 Interference on the Panthers (Niko Mikkola): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH
P3 13:08 Holding on the Predators (Spencer Stastney): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P3 11:40 Interference on the Panthers (Brad Marchand): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NSH

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Predators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 3:34 Carter Verhaeghe scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance +16% FLA –
2 P2 9:30 High sticking double minor on the Predators (Nick Blankenburg): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% FLA –
3 P3 18:12 Erik Haula’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance +8% FLA –
4 P3 13:21 Steven Stamkos missed the net with a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 22% chance +6% FLA –
5 P3 11:40 Interference on the Panthers (Brad Marchand): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% NSH –
6 P3 6:19 Ryan O'Reilly scored on a backhand shot from 5 feetShooting · 17% chance +30% NSH –
7 P3 1:48 Ryan O'Reilly’s wrist shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 13% chance +6% FLA –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Predators won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% NSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Predators 52% · Panthers 48%

Final margin
Predators by 1
Luck in goals
0.9 for the Predators
Luck-adjusted margin
Predators by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Predators 47% · Panthers 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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