2025-26 regular season · December 3, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Stars at Devils, Dec 3, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Stars beat the Devils 3–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Stars win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 26 points of win probability to the Stars.
The biggest swing (P2, 8:26 left): Miro Heiskanen scored on a snap shot from 32 feet, worth 20 points of win probability to the Stars.
Final
 Dallas Stars | 3 |
|---|---|
 New Jersey Devils | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +51 Stars lucky · −51 Devils
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stars win 5, Devils win 5.
- 1 DAL 6 NJD 3
- 2 DAL 4 NJD 1
- 3 DAL 3 NJD 1
- 4 DAL 1 NJD 0
- 5 DAL 3 NJD 2
- 6 DAL 2 NJD 3
- 7 DAL 2 NJD 3
- 8 DAL 0 NJD 2
- 9 DAL 3 NJD 6
- 10 DAL 2 NJD 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Stars win 49% of them, Devils 51%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stars by 3+ | 16.0% |
| Stars by 2 | 10.4% |
| Stars by 1 | 22.5% |
| Devils by 1 | 23.7% |
| Devils by 2 | 10.7% |
| Devils by 3+ | 16.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stars | 35 | 3 | 2.18 | +0.82 |
 Devils | 44 | 0 | 2.28 | −2.28 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P2 12:59 | Tripping on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NJD |
| P2 1:26 | Tripping on the Devils (Dougie Hamilton): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DAL |
| P3 16:32 | Tripping on the Stars (Jamie Benn): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% NJD |
When it happened
Devils’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 1:31 | Juho Lammikko’s snap shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +3% DAL | – |
| 2 | P1 1:30 | Luke Glendening’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance | +4% DAL | – |
| 3 | P2 12:59 | Tripping on the Stars (Mikko Rantanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% NJD | – |
| 4 | P2 8:26 | Miro Heiskanen scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 8% chance | +20% DAL | – |
| 5 | P2 2:24 | Jason Robertson scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% DAL | – |
| 6 | P2 1:26 | Tripping on the Devils (Dougie Hamilton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% DAL | – |
| 7 | P3 16:32 | Tripping on the Stars (Jamie Benn): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% NJD | – |
| 8 | P3 12:55 | Mikko Rantanen scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 29% chance | +4% DAL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stars 68% · Devils 32%
- Final margin
- Stars by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for the Stars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Stars by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Stars 49% · Devils 51% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 9, 2025-26
- Blues at Senators Dec 6, 2025 · STL 2–1 · replay 29% for the winner
- Islanders at Lightning Dec 6, 2025 · NYI 2–0 · replay 34% for the winner
- Lightning at Islanders Dec 2, 2025 · NYI 2–1 · replay 34% for the winner
- Red Wings at Blue Jackets Dec 4, 2025 · CBJ 6–5 SO · replay 36% for the winner
- Mammoth at Canucks Dec 5, 2025 · UTA 4–1 · replay 37% for the winner
- Sharks at Hurricanes Dec 7, 2025 · SJS 4–1 · replay 38% for the winner
- Ducks at Blues Dec 1, 2025 · ANA 4–1 · replay 38% for the winner
- Sabres at Jets Dec 5, 2025 · WPG 4–1 · replay 38% for the winner
- Blue Jackets at Devils Dec 1, 2025 · CBJ 5–3 · replay 38% for the winner
- Penguins at Lightning Dec 4, 2025 · PIT 4–3 · replay 40% for the winner
- Blues at Bruins Dec 4, 2025 · BOS 5–2 · replay 42% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Hurricanes Dec 4, 2025 · TOR 5–1 · replay 42% for the winner