luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 3, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Mammoth at Ducks, Dec 3, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Mammoth beat the Ducks 7–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

The biggest swing (P1, 14:01 left): Lawson Crouse scored on a backhand shot from 6 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Mammoth.

Final

Utah Mammoth 7
Anaheim Ducks 0

December 3, 2025 · Honda Center

Luck index +38 Mammoth lucky · −38 Ducks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Mammoth win 6, Ducks win 4.

  1. 1 UTA 7 ANA 2
  2. 2 UTA 6 ANA 3
  3. 3 UTA 4 ANA 1
  4. 4 UTA 5 ANA 3
  5. 5 UTA 5 ANA 4
  6. 6 UTA 5 ANA 4
  7. 7 UTA 2 ANA 3
  8. 8 UTA 1 ANA 2
  9. 9 UTA 4 ANA 6
  10. 10 UTA 2 ANA 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Mammoth win 62% of them, Ducks 38%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Mammoth by 3+30.2%
Mammoth by 211.1%
Mammoth by 120.2%
Ducks by 119.7%
Ducks by 27.4%
Ducks by 3+11.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Mammoth by 7, without the luck Mammoth by 2.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Mammoth5073.39+3.61
Ducks4402.42−2.42

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:30 Tripping on the Mammoth (Logan Cooley): 2 minutes on the power play +4% ANA
P2 10:09 Interference on the Mammoth (Ian Cole): 2 minutes on the power play +2% ANA
P2 7:07 A Ducks goal came off the board on review (off side) +6% UTA
P2 1:24 Cross checking on the Ducks (Beckett Sennecke): 2 minutes on the power play 0% UTA
P3 15:25 Tripping on the Mammoth (Maveric Lamoureux): 2 minutes on the power play 0% ANA
P3 10:32 Roughing on the Ducks (Ross Johnston): 2 minutes on the power play 0% UTA

When it happened

Ducks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Ducks were ahead in it, below while the Mammoth were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 14:01 Lawson Crouse scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 12% chance +15% UTA –
2 P1 13:46 JJ Peterka’s snap shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +3% ANA –
3 P1 12:44 Frank Vatrano missed the net with a snap shot from 9 feetShooting · 22% chance +4% UTA –
4 P1 12:30 Tripping on the Mammoth (Logan Cooley): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% ANA –
5 P1 9:30 Dylan Guenther scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% UTA –
6 P2 14:17 Ian Cole scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 5% chance +9% UTA –
7 P2 7:07 A Ducks goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +6% UTA –
8 P2 5:26 JJ Peterka scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 6% chance +3% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Mammoth 91% · Ducks 9%

Final margin
Mammoth by 7
Luck in goals
4.5 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 2.5
Replay with same day's form
Mammoth 62% · Ducks 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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