Golden Knights at Devils, Dec 5, 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Vegas Golden Knights	3
New Jersey Devils	0

December 5, 2025 · Prudential Center

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +43 Golden Knights lucky · −43 Devils

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Golden Knights win 6, Devils win 4.

1 VGK 6 NJD 2
2 VGK 4 NJD 1
3 VGK 2 NJD 0
4 VGK 2 NJD 1
5 VGK 3 NJD 2
6 VGK 2 NJD 1
7 VGK 1 NJD 2
8 VGK 1 NJD 2
9 VGK 1 NJD 3
10 VGK 2 NJD 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before puck drop

No closing line for this game.

Same teams, fresh game

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Golden Knights win 57% of them, Devils 43%. The line is what actually happened: Golden Knights by 3.

Actual: Golden Knights by 3 765432101234567 ← Golden Knights win by Devils win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Golden Knights by 3+	21.4%
Golden Knights by 2	12.1%
Golden Knights by 1	23.9%
Devils by 1	23.9%
Devils by 2	8.4%
Devils by 3+	10.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Shooting +27% VGK

Goaltending +4% NJD

All luck +23% VGK

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 goals to the Golden Knights: the final margin was Golden Knights by 3, without the luck Golden Knights by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Shooting	Unblocked attempts	Goals	Expected goals	Above expected
Golden Knights	35	3	2.31	+0.69
Devils	38	0	1.81	−1.81

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

When	Call	Win probability for
P3 17:44	Tripping on the Golden Knights (Brandon Saad): 2 minutes on the power play	+5% NJD
P3 7:54	Delaying game puck over glass on the Golden Knights (Noah Hanifin): 2 minutes on the power play	+6% NJD
P3 5:49	Hooking on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power play	+6% VGK
P3 2:36	Tripping on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power play	+1% VGK

When it happened

Devils’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Devils 50% Golden Knights P1P2P3 134568

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Devils were ahead in it, below while the Golden Knights were.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	P1 0:13	Shea Theodore scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 4% chance	+18% VGK	–
2	P2 19:19	Nico Hischier’s snap shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance	+3% VGK	–
3	P2 12:36	Luke Glendening missed the net with a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 19% chance	+4% VGK	–
4	P2 6:56	Jesper Bratt’s wrist shot from 24 feet was savedShooting · 7% chanceNico Hischier’s poke shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 9% chance	+4% VGK	–
5	P3 17:44	Tripping on the Golden Knights (Brandon Saad): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls	+5% NJD	–
6	P3 7:54	Delaying game puck over glass on the Golden Knights (Noah Hanifin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls	+6% NJD	–
7	P3 5:49	Hooking on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls	+6% VGK	–
8	P3 4:24	Tomas Hertl scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 9% chance	+9% VGK	–

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Golden Knights 78% · Devils 22%

Final margin: Golden Knights by 3
Luck in goals: 1.9 for the Golden Knights
Luck-adjusted margin: Golden Knights by 1.1
Replay with same day's form: Golden Knights 57% · Devils 43% unchanged: why

How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

Shooting 75%Empty-net goals 100%Penalty calls 0%Overturned goals 0%Overtime 100%Shootout 100%

What counts Referee calls

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

Shea Theodore scored on a snap shot from 33 feetP1 0:13
Nico Hischier’s snap shot from 22 feet was savedP2 19:19
Luke Glendening missed the net with a snap shot from 12 feetP2 12:36
Tripping on the Golden Knights (Brandon Saad): 2 minutes on the power playP3 17:44
Delaying game puck over glass on the Golden Knights (Noah Hanifin): 2 minutes on the power playP3 7:54
Hooking on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power playP3 5:49
Tomas Hertl scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetP3 4:24
Tripping on the Devils (Nico Hischier): 2 minutes on the power playP3 2:36

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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