luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 6, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blackhawks at Kings, Dec 6, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Kings beat the Blackhawks 6–0, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

The biggest swing (P2, 18:05 left): Warren Foegele scored on a slap shot from 34 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Kings.

Final

Chicago Blackhawks 0
Los Angeles Kings 6

December 6, 2025 · Crypto.com Arena

Luck index +22 Kings about even · −22 Blackhawks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blackhawks win 2, Kings win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 3 LAK 1
  2. 2 CHI 2 LAK 1
  3. 3 CHI 2 LAK 3
  4. 4 CHI 1 LAK 2
  5. 5 CHI 0 LAK 2
  6. 6 CHI 0 LAK 3
  7. 7 CHI 1 LAK 4
  8. 8 CHI 1 LAK 4
  9. 9 CHI 1 LAK 5
  10. 10 CHI 1 LAK 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Blackhawks win 22% of them, Kings 78%. The line is what actually happened: Kings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blackhawks by 3+2.4%
Blackhawks by 23.8%
Blackhawks by 115.7%
Kings by 119.1%
Kings by 213.3%
Kings by 3+45.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 goals to the Kings: the final margin was Kings by 6, without the luck Kings by 3.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blackhawks3301.06−1.06
Kings4363.35+2.65

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 4:16 Tripping on the Kings (Warren Foegele): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 13:43 Holding on the Blackhawks (Colton Dach): 2 minutes on the power play +4% LAK
P2 10:57 Hooking on the Kings (Drew Doughty): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 8:51 Tripping on the Kings (Joel Armia): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 3:31 Slashing on the Blackhawks (Artyom Levshunov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% LAK

When it happened

Kings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kings were ahead in it, below while the Blackhawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 4:16 Tripping on the Kings (Warren Foegele): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CHI –
2 P2 18:05 Warren Foegele scored on a slap shot from 34 feetShooting · 10% chance +17% LAK –
3 P2 12:50 Anze Kopitar’s slap shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 34% chance +5% CHI –
4 P2 10:57 Hooking on the Kings (Drew Doughty): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CHI –
5 P2 8:51 Tripping on the Kings (Joel Armia): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CHI –
6 P2 3:31 Slashing on the Blackhawks (Artyom Levshunov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% LAK –
7 P2 3:22 Andrei Kuzmenko scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 20% chance +12% LAK –
8 P2 0:54 Brandt Clarke scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 8% chance +6% LAK –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blackhawks 1% · Kings 99%

Final margin
Kings by 6
Luck in goals
2.8 for the Kings
Luck-adjusted margin
Kings by 3.2
Replay with same day's form
Blackhawks 22% · Kings 78% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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