2025-26 regular season · December 6, 2025 · OT
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blue Jackets at Panthers, Dec 6, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Blue Jackets 7–6, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Blue Jackets had the bounces: goaltending alone was worth 55 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
The game turned on a luck play (P2, 3:48 left): Seth Jones scored on a snap shot from 45 feet, worth 23 points of win probability to the Panthers. The biggest single swing (OT): the Panthers won in overtime.
Final (OT)
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 6 |
|---|---|
 Florida Panthers | 7 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +34 Panthers lucky · −34 Blue Jackets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 3, Panthers win 7.
- 1 CBJ 5 FLA 2
- 2 CBJ 3 FLA 2
- 3 CBJ 6 FLA 5
- 4 CBJ 3 FLA 4
- 5 CBJ 3 FLA 4
- 6 CBJ 3 FLA 5
- 7 CBJ 2 FLA 5
- 8 CBJ 1 FLA 4
- 9 CBJ 3 FLA 7
- 10 CBJ 1 FLA 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Blue Jackets win 34% of them, Panthers 66%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets by 3+ | 7.8% |
| Blue Jackets by 2 | 6.9% |
| Blue Jackets by 1 | 19.2% |
| Panthers by 1 | 19.0% |
| Panthers by 2 | 11.9% |
| Panthers by 3+ | 35.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blue Jackets | 33 | 6 | 2.06 | +3.94 |
 Panthers | 46 | 6 | 3.33 | +2.67 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:18 | Slashing on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CBJ |
| P2 8:45 | Delaying game unsuccessful challenge on the Blue Jackets (CBJ): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P2 5:33 | Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Ivan Provorov): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% FLA |
| P3 13:59 | Cross checking on the Blue Jackets (Zach Werenski): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% FLA |
| P3 11:32 | Slashing on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CBJ |
| P3 7:59 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Anton Lundell): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% CBJ |
| P3 2:49 | Roughing on the Blue Jackets (Brendan Gaunce): 2 minutes on the power play | +10% FLA |
| OT 4:02 | Hooking on the Panthers (Sam Reinhart): 2 minutes on the power play | +12% CBJ |
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 12:20 | Damon Severson scored on a tip from 15 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% CBJ | – |
| 2 | P1 10:13 | Evan Rodrigues scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 7% chance | +16% FLA | – |
| 3 | P2 14:34 | Dmitri Voronkov scored on a tip from 9 feetShooting · 9% chance | +19% CBJ | – |
| 4 | P2 14:03 | Miles Wood scored on a backhand shot from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% CBJ | – |
| 5 | P2 3:48 | The game turned hereSeth Jones scored on a snap shot from 45 feetShooting · 5% chance | +23% FLA | – |
| 6 | P2 1:34 | Cole Sillinger scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 11% chance | +22% CBJ | – |
| 7 | P3 5:42 | Anton Lundell scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 10% chance | +34% FLA | – |
| 8 | OT | The Panthers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip | +49% FLA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blue Jackets 28% · Panthers 72%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 1
- Luck in goals
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 1.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Blue Jackets 34% · Panthers 66% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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