2025-26 regular season · December 6, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Jets at Oilers, Dec 6, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Jets 6–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 17:00 left): Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored on a wrist shot from 11 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Winnipeg Jets | 2 |
|---|---|
 Edmonton Oilers | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +31 Oilers lucky · −31 Jets
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 3, Oilers win 7.
- 1 WPG 6 EDM 3
- 2 WPG 3 EDM 2
- 3 WPG 4 EDM 3
- 4 WPG 4 EDM 5
- 5 WPG 1 EDM 2
- 6 WPG 1 EDM 3
- 7 WPG 4 EDM 7
- 8 WPG 1 EDM 4
- 9 WPG 0 EDM 4
- 10 WPG 0 EDM 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.3 replays ended
Jets win 31% of them, Oilers 69%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 3+ | 7.7% |
| Jets by 2 | 5.5% |
| Jets by 1 | 17.3% |
| Oilers by 1 | 19.9% |
| Oilers by 2 | 13.3% |
| Oilers by 3+ | 36.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jets | 35 | 2 | 2.12 | −0.12 |
 Oilers | 41 | 6 | 3.39 | +2.61 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 7:42 | Tripping on the Jets (Kyle Connor): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% EDM |
| P1 2:23 | Interference goalkeeper on the Oilers (Connor McDavid): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% WPG |
When it happened
Oilers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:14 | Cole Perfetti’s snap shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance | +2% EDM | – |
| 2 | P1 18:42 | Connor McDavid’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +2% WPG | – |
| 3 | P1 17:02 | Connor McDavid’s snap shot from 28 feet was savedShooting · 10% chance | +2% WPG | – |
| 4 | P1 17:00 | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% EDM | – |
| 5 | P1 15:23 | Leon Draisaitl scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 12% chance | +11% EDM | – |
| 6 | P1 12:36 | Matt Savoie scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance | +8% EDM | – |
| 7 | P1 7:42 | Tripping on the Jets (Kyle Connor): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +2% EDM | – |
| 8 | P1 6:29 | Evan Bouchard scored on a slap shot from 40 feetShooting · 10% chance | +4% EDM | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 15% · Oilers 85%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.0 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 31% · Oilers 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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