luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 2, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Stars at Rangers, Dec 2, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Stars 3–2, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Stars had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 14 points of win probability to the Stars.

The biggest swing (OT): the Rangers won in overtime, worth 49 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final (OT)

Dallas Stars 2
New York Rangers 3

December 2, 2025 · Madison Square Garden

Luck index +32 Rangers lucky · −32 Stars

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stars win 3, Rangers win 7.

  1. 1 DAL 4 NYR 1
  2. 2 DAL 3 NYR 2
  3. 3 DAL 4 NYR 3
  4. 4 DAL 2 NYR 3
  5. 5 DAL 2 NYR 3
  6. 6 DAL 2 NYR 4
  7. 7 DAL 2 NYR 5
  8. 8 DAL 1 NYR 4
  9. 9 DAL 0 NYR 4
  10. 10 DAL 3 NYR 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.3 replays ended

Stars win 32% of them, Rangers 68%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stars by 3+7.6%
Stars by 26.5%
Stars by 118.3%
Rangers by 121.1%
Rangers by 212.6%
Rangers by 3+33.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth 0.0 goals to the Stars: the final margin was Rangers by 1, without the luck Rangers by 1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Stars3522.01−0.01
Rangers5223.34−1.34

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:19 Cross checking on the Rangers (Carson Soucy): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P1 8:20 High sticking on the Stars (Alexander Petrovic): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P2 7:23 Interference on the Stars (Justin Hryckowian): 2 minutes on the power play +5% NYR
P2 4:50 Tripping on the Rangers (Carson Soucy): 2 minutes on the power play +5% DAL
P2 2:01 Holding on the Stars (Oskar Bäck): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NYR
P3 15:47 High sticking double minor on the Stars (Sam Steel): 4 minutes on the power play +13% NYR

When it happened

Rangers’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Rangers were ahead in it, below while the Stars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:09 Carson Soucy scored on a wrist shot from 2 feetShooting · 60% chance +6% NYR –
2 P1 10:56 Kyle Capobianco scored on a snap shot from 48 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% DAL –
3 P2 4:50 Tripping on the Rangers (Carson Soucy): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% DAL –
4 P2 2:01 Holding on the Stars (Oskar Bäck): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% NYR –
5 P3 15:47 High sticking double minor on the Stars (Sam Steel): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +13% NYR –
6 P3 10:28 Mikko Rantanen scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 15% chance +28% DAL –
7 P3 2:13 Will Cuylle scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 7% chance +40% NYR –
8 OT The Rangers won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +49% NYR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stars 27% · Rangers 73%

Final margin
Rangers by 1
Luck in goals
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Rangers by 1.0
Replay with same day's form
Stars 32% · Rangers 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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