Ducks lucky 4 
Penguins unlucky 3 Long shot · Ducks win 17% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Dec 8, 2025 – Dec 14, 2025
NHL week 10: who deserved to win
5 of 53 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Ducks beat the Penguins 4–3 (SO) in a game they win 17% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 53 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Ducks lucky 4 Penguins unlucky 3 Long shot · Ducks win 17% of replays 
Red Wings lucky 4 
Canucks unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 23% of replays 
Lightning unlucky 2 
Islanders lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 30% of replays 
Senators unlucky 2 
Wild lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Wild win 33% of replays 
Sabres lucky 3 Canucks unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Sabres win 36% of replays 
Bruins 6 
Jets 3 Coin flip · Bruins win 40% of replays 
Devils 4 Senators 3 Coin flip · Devils win 41% of replays 
Kraken 3 
Mammoth 5 Coin flip · Mammoth win 41% of replays Lightning 6 
Canadiens 1 Coin flip · Lightning win 42% of replays 
Sharks 6 Penguins 5 Coin flip · Sharks win 43% of replays Red Wings 1 
Oilers 4 Coin flip · Oilers win 43% of replays Canucks 2 Devils 1 Coin flip · Canucks win 44% of replays 
Golden Knights 3 
Blue Jackets 2 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 45% of replays Lightning 8 Devils 4 Coin flip · Lightning win 45% of replays Sabres 3 Kraken 1 Coin flip · Sabres win 46% of replays Sabres 4 
Flames 7 Coin flip · Flames win 47% of replays Canadiens 4 Penguins 2 Coin flip · Canadiens win 47% of replays Sabres 4 Oilers 3 Coin flip · Sabres win 47% of replays 
Kings 2 Kraken 3 Coin flip · Kraken win 48% of replays Golden Knights 4 Islanders 5 Coin flip · Islanders win 48% of replays Flames 2 Kings 1 Coin flip · Flames win 49% of replays Oilers 6 
Maple Leafs 3 Coin flip · Oilers win 49% of replays Red Wings 4 Flames 3 Coin flip · Red Wings win 50% of replays 
Avalanche 3 
Predators 4 Coin flip · Predators win 51% of replays Sharks 3 Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Sharks win 52% of replays Red Wings 4 
Blackhawks 0 Coin flip · Red Wings win 52% of replays 
Flyers 2 
Hurricanes 3 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 53% of replays 
Stars 4 Jets 3 Coin flip · Stars win 53% of replays Oilers 1 Canadiens 4 Coin flip · Canadiens win 54% of replays Senators 6 Blue Jackets 3 Coin flip · Senators win 55% of replays Lightning 0 Maple Leafs 2 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 55% of replays 
Rangers 0 Blackhawks 3 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 55% of replays Bruins 2 Wild 6 Coin flip · Wild win 56% of replays Ducks 2 Islanders 5 Coin flip · Islanders win 56% of replays Ducks 1 Devils 4 Coin flip · Devils win 57% of replays Golden Knights 3 Flyers 2 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 57% of replays Hurricanes 4 Flyers 3 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 57% of replays 
Panthers 4 Mammoth 3 Coin flip · Panthers win 57% of replays Blackhawks 2 
Blues 3 Coin flip · Blues win 59% of replays Kings 4 Mammoth 2 Coin flip · Kings win 59% of replays Panthers 4 Stars 0 Coin flip · Panthers win 59% of replays Hurricanes 3 
Capitals 2 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 62% of replays Bruins 5 Blues 2 Replays agree · Bruins win 63% of replays Wild 4 Kraken 1 Replays agree · Wild win 63% of replays Sharks 1 Flyers 4 Replays agree · Flyers win 65% of replays Capitals 1 Jets 5 Replays agree · Jets win 68% of replays Canadiens 4 Rangers 5 Replays agree · Rangers win 68% of replays Predators 2 Avalanche 4 Replays agree · Avalanche win 69% of replays Mammoth 5 Penguins 4 Replays agree · Mammoth win 72% of replays Blues 2 Predators 7 Replays agree · Predators win 72% of replays Blue Jackets 1 Hurricanes 4 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 74% of replays Panthers 2 Avalanche 6 Replays agree · Avalanche win 76% of replays Stars 2 Wild 5 Replays agree · Wild win 83% of replays Week 10 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ducks | W 4–3 SO @ Penguins Dec 9, 2025 | 17% | +83 |
| 2 | Red Wings | W 4–0 @ Canucks Dec 8, 2025 | 23% | +77 |
| 3 | Islanders | W 3–2 SO vs Lightning Dec 13, 2025 | 30% | +70 |
| 4 | Wild | W 3–2 vs Senators Dec 13, 2025 | 33% | +67 |
| 5 | Sabres | W 3–2 @ Canucks Dec 11, 2025 | 36% | +64 |
| 6 | Bruins | W 6–3 @ Jets Dec 11, 2025 | 40% | +60 |
| 7 | Devils | W 4–3 @ Senators Dec 9, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 8 | Mammoth | W 5–3 vs Kraken Dec 12, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 9 | Lightning | W 6–1 @ Canadiens Dec 9, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 10 | Sharks | W 6–5 OT @ Penguins Dec 13, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 11 | Oilers | W 4–1 vs Red Wings Dec 11, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 12 | Canucks | W 2–1 @ Devils Dec 14, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 13 | Golden Knights | W 3–2 @ Blue Jackets Dec 13, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 14 | Lightning | W 8–4 @ Devils Dec 11, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 15 | Sabres | W 3–1 @ Kraken Dec 14, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 16 | Flames | W 7–4 vs Sabres Dec 8, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 17 | Canadiens | W 4–2 @ Penguins Dec 11, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 18 | Sabres | W 4–3 OT @ Oilers Dec 9, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 19 | Kraken | W 3–2 OT vs Kings Dec 10, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 20 | Islanders | W 5–4 SO vs Golden Knights Dec 9, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 21 | Flames | W 2–1 OT @ Kings Dec 13, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 22 | Oilers | W 6–3 @ Maple Leafs Dec 13, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 23 | Red Wings | W 4–3 @ Flames Dec 10, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 24 | Predators | W 4–3 SO vs Avalanche Dec 9, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 25 | Sharks | W 3–2 OT @ Maple Leafs Dec 11, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 26 | Red Wings | W 4–0 @ Blackhawks Dec 13, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 27 | Hurricanes | W 3–2 SO vs Flyers Dec 14, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 28 | Stars | W 4–3 @ Jets Dec 9, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 29 | Canadiens | W 4–1 vs Oilers Dec 14, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 30 | Senators | W 6–3 @ Blue Jackets Dec 11, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 31 | Maple Leafs | W 2–0 vs Lightning Dec 8, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 32 | Blackhawks | W 3–0 vs Rangers Dec 10, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 33 | Wild | W 6–2 vs Bruins Dec 14, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 34 | Islanders | W 5–2 vs Ducks Dec 11, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 35 | Devils | W 4–1 vs Ducks Dec 13, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 36 | Golden Knights | W 3–2 OT @ Flyers Dec 11, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 37 | Hurricanes | W 4–3 SO @ Flyers Dec 13, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 38 | Panthers | W 4–3 @ Mammoth Dec 10, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 39 | Blues | W 3–2 vs Blackhawks Dec 12, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 40 | Kings | W 4–2 @ Mammoth Dec 8, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 41 | Panthers | W 4–0 @ Stars Dec 13, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 42 | Hurricanes | W 3–2 SO @ Capitals Dec 11, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 43 | Bruins | W 5–2 @ Blues Dec 9, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 44 | Wild | W 4–1 @ Kraken Dec 8, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 45 | Flyers | W 4–1 vs Sharks Dec 9, 2025 | 65% | +35 |
| 46 | Jets | W 5–1 vs Capitals Dec 13, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 47 | Rangers | W 5–4 OT vs Canadiens Dec 13, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 48 | Avalanche | W 4–2 vs Predators Dec 13, 2025 | 69% | +31 |
| 49 | Mammoth | W 5–4 OT @ Penguins Dec 14, 2025 | 72% | +28 |
| 50 | Predators | W 7–2 vs Blues Dec 11, 2025 | 72% | +28 |
| 51 | Hurricanes | W 4–1 vs Blue Jackets Dec 9, 2025 | 74% | +26 |
| 52 | Avalanche | W 6–2 vs Panthers Dec 11, 2025 | 76% | +24 |
| 53 | Wild | W 5–2 vs Stars Dec 11, 2025 | 83% | +17 |
| 54 | Stars | L 2–5 @ Wild Dec 11, 2025 | 17% | −17 |
| 55 | Panthers | L 2–6 @ Avalanche Dec 11, 2025 | 24% | −24 |
| 56 | Blue Jackets | L 1–4 @ Hurricanes Dec 9, 2025 | 26% | −26 |
| 57 | Blues | L 2–7 @ Predators Dec 11, 2025 | 28% | −28 |
| 58 | Penguins | L 4–5 OT vs Mammoth Dec 14, 2025 | 28% | −28 |
| 59 | Predators | L 2–4 @ Avalanche Dec 13, 2025 | 31% | −31 |
| 60 | Canadiens | L 4–5 OT @ Rangers Dec 13, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 61 | Capitals | L 1–5 @ Jets Dec 13, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 62 | Sharks | L 1–4 @ Flyers Dec 9, 2025 | 35% | −35 |
| 63 | Kraken | L 1–4 vs Wild Dec 8, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 64 | Blues | L 2–5 vs Bruins Dec 9, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 65 | Capitals | L 2–3 SO vs Hurricanes Dec 11, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 66 | Stars | L 0–4 vs Panthers Dec 13, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 67 | Mammoth | L 2–4 vs Kings Dec 8, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 68 | Blackhawks | L 2–3 @ Blues Dec 12, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 69 | Mammoth | L 3–4 vs Panthers Dec 10, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 70 | Flyers | L 2–3 OT vs Golden Knights Dec 11, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 71 | Flyers | L 3–4 SO vs Hurricanes Dec 13, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 72 | Ducks | L 1–4 @ Devils Dec 13, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 73 | Ducks | L 2–5 @ Islanders Dec 11, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 74 | Bruins | L 2–6 @ Wild Dec 14, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 75 | Rangers | L 0–3 @ Blackhawks Dec 10, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 76 | Lightning | L 0–2 @ Maple Leafs Dec 8, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 77 | Blue Jackets | L 3–6 vs Senators Dec 11, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 78 | Oilers | L 1–4 @ Canadiens Dec 14, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 79 | Jets | L 3–4 vs Stars Dec 9, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 80 | Flyers | L 2–3 SO @ Hurricanes Dec 14, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 81 | Blackhawks | L 0–4 vs Red Wings Dec 13, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 82 | Maple Leafs | L 2–3 OT vs Sharks Dec 11, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 83 | Avalanche | L 3–4 SO @ Predators Dec 9, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 84 | Flames | L 3–4 vs Red Wings Dec 10, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 85 | Maple Leafs | L 3–6 vs Oilers Dec 13, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 86 | Kings | L 1–2 OT vs Flames Dec 13, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 87 | Golden Knights | L 4–5 SO @ Islanders Dec 9, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 88 | Kings | L 2–3 OT @ Kraken Dec 10, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 89 | Oilers | L 3–4 OT vs Sabres Dec 9, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 90 | Penguins | L 2–4 vs Canadiens Dec 11, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 91 | Sabres | L 4–7 @ Flames Dec 8, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 92 | Kraken | L 1–3 vs Sabres Dec 14, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 93 | Devils | L 4–8 vs Lightning Dec 11, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 94 | Blue Jackets | L 2–3 vs Golden Knights Dec 13, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 95 | Devils | L 1–2 vs Canucks Dec 14, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 96 | Red Wings | L 1–4 @ Oilers Dec 11, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 97 | Penguins | L 5–6 OT vs Sharks Dec 13, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 98 | Canadiens | L 1–6 vs Lightning Dec 9, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 99 | Kraken | L 3–5 @ Mammoth Dec 12, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 100 | Senators | L 3–4 vs Devils Dec 9, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 101 | Jets | L 3–6 vs Bruins Dec 11, 2025 | 60% | −60 |
| 102 | Canucks | L 2–3 vs Sabres Dec 11, 2025 | 64% | −64 |
| 103 | Senators | L 2–3 @ Wild Dec 13, 2025 | 67% | −67 |
| 104 | Lightning | L 2–3 SO @ Islanders Dec 13, 2025 | 70% | −70 |
| 105 | Canucks | L 0–4 vs Red Wings Dec 8, 2025 | 77% | −77 |
| 106 | Penguins | L 3–4 SO vs Ducks Dec 9, 2025 | 83% | −83 |