2025-26 regular season · December 13, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Red Wings at Blackhawks, Dec 13, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Red Wings beat the Blackhawks 4–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Red Wings win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 18 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
The biggest swing (P1, 19:05 left): Alex DeBrincat scored on a tip from 10 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
Final
 Detroit Red Wings | 4 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Blackhawks | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Red Wings lucky · −48 Blackhawks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Red Wings win 5, Blackhawks win 5.
- 1 DET 5 CHI 1
- 2 DET 4 CHI 1
- 3 DET 3 CHI 1
- 4 DET 3 CHI 2
- 5 DET 2 CHI 1
- 6 DET 1 CHI 2
- 7 DET 1 CHI 2
- 8 DET 2 CHI 3
- 9 DET 1 CHI 4
- 10 DET 1 CHI 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Red Wings win 52% of them, Blackhawks 48%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Red Wings by 3+ | 19.8% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 10.9% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 21.8% |
| Blackhawks by 1 | 23.1% |
| Blackhawks by 2 | 10.0% |
| Blackhawks by 3+ | 14.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Red Wings | 33 | 3 | 2.47 | +0.53 |
 Blackhawks | 44 | 0 | 2.43 | −2.43 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 7:36 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Oliver Moore): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DET |
| P1 4:30 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Colton Dach): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DET |
| P2 14:26 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Jacob Bernard-Docker): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CHI |
| P2 12:30 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Andre Burakovsky): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% DET |
| P2 2:56 | Interference on the Red Wings (Emmitt Finnie): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% CHI |
| P3 13:12 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Alex DeBrincat): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% CHI |
When it happened
Blackhawks’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:05 | Alex DeBrincat scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% DET | – |
| 2 | P1 15:25 | Patrick Kane scored on a backhand shot from 13 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% DET | – |
| 3 | P1 7:36 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Oliver Moore): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% DET | – |
| 4 | P1 7:15 | Patrick Kane’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +2% CHI | – |
| 5 | P1 4:30 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Colton Dach): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% DET | – |
| 6 | P2 14:26 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Jacob Bernard-Docker): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% CHI | – |
| 7 | P2 12:30 | Tripping on the Blackhawks (Andre Burakovsky): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% DET | – |
| 8 | P2 5:37 | Emmitt Finnie scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 13% chance | +7% DET | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Red Wings 75% · Blackhawks 25%
- Final margin
- Red Wings by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.8 for the Red Wings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Red Wings by 1.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Red Wings 52% · Blackhawks 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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