luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 13, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Senators at Wild, Dec 13, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Wild beat the Senators 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Senators: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 36 points of win probability to the Wild.

The biggest swing (P3, 0:24 left): Joel Eriksson Ek scored on a snap shot from 36 feet, worth 45 points of win probability to the Wild.

Final

Ottawa Senators 2
Minnesota Wild 3

December 13, 2025 · Grand Casino Arena

Luck index +67 Wild very lucky · −67 Senators

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Senators win 7, Wild win 3.

  1. 1 OTT 6 MIN 0
  2. 2 OTT 5 MIN 1
  3. 3 OTT 6 MIN 3
  4. 4 OTT 7 MIN 4
  5. 5 OTT 4 MIN 2
  6. 6 OTT 3 MIN 2
  7. 7 OTT 4 MIN 3
  8. 8 OTT 4 MIN 5
  9. 9 OTT 4 MIN 5
  10. 10 OTT 3 MIN 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Senators win 67% of them, Wild 33%. The line is what actually happened: Wild by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Senators by 3+38.8%
Senators by 210.9%
Senators by 116.9%
Wild by 118.8%
Wild by 26.5%
Wild by 3+8.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Wild: the final margin was Wild by 1, without the luck Senators by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Senators5524.10−2.10
Wild3332.23+0.77

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 18:26 Delaying game puck over glass on the Senators (Ridly Greig): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P2 15:04 Holding on the Senators (David Perron): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P2 5:56 Slashing on the Senators (Tyler Kleven): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MIN
P2 2:26 Holding on the Wild (David Jiricek): 2 minutes on the power play +2% OTT
P2 2:02 Slashing on the Wild (Joel Eriksson Ek): 2 minutes on the power play +2% OTT
P3 14:51 Slashing on the Wild (Kirill Kaprizov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% OTT
P3 4:32 High sticking on the Wild (Daemon Hunt): 2 minutes on the power play +9% OTT

When it happened

Wild’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Wild were ahead in it, below while the Senators were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P2 16:06 Tyler Pitlick scored on a tip from 12 feetShooting · 6% chance +18% MIN –
2 P2 3:58 Ryan Hartman scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 25% chance +11% MIN –
3 P2 0:23 Tim Stützle scored on a poke shot from 11 feetShooting · 9% chance +13% OTT –
4 P3 14:15 Dylan Cozens scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 7% chance +26% OTT –
5 P3 4:32 High sticking on the Wild (Daemon Hunt): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% OTT –
6 P3 1:43 Fabian Zetterlund’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +7% MIN –
7 P3 1:42 Fabian Zetterlund’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +7% MIN –
8 P3 0:24 Joel Eriksson Ek scored on a snap shot from 36 feetShooting · 2% chance +45% MIN –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Senators 62% · Wild 38%

Final margin
Wild by 1
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Wild
Luck-adjusted margin
Senators by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Senators 67% · Wild 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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