2025-26 regular season · December 11, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canadiens at Penguins, Dec 11, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Canadiens beat the Penguins 4–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Canadiens win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
The biggest swing (P2, 15:23 left): Brendan Gallagher scored on a wrist shot from 28 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Canadiens.
Final
 Montreal Canadiens | 4 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Canadiens lucky · −53 Penguins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canadiens win 5, Penguins win 5.
- 1 MTL 6 PIT 2
- 2 MTL 5 PIT 2
- 3 MTL 2 PIT 0
- 4 MTL 3 PIT 2
- 5 MTL 3 PIT 2
- 6 MTL 3 PIT 4
- 7 MTL 3 PIT 4
- 8 MTL 2 PIT 4
- 9 MTL 2 PIT 5
- 10 MTL 1 PIT 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Canadiens win 47% of them, Penguins 53%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canadiens by 3+ | 17.7% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 9.1% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 20.1% |
| Penguins by 1 | 20.2% |
| Penguins by 2 | 10.3% |
| Penguins by 3+ | 22.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canadiens | 40 | 4 | 2.73 | +1.27 |
 Penguins | 54 | 2 | 4.03 | −2.03 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 10:44 | Holding on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P1 6:12 | Holding on the Penguins (Justin Brazeau): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 15:02 | Slashing on the Canadiens (Noah Dobson): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P2 10:31 | Tripping on the Penguins (Ville Koivunen): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% MTL |
| P2 9:28 | Holding on the Canadiens (Jared Davidson): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% PIT |
| P3 17:45 | Slashing on the Penguins (Danton Heinen): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% MTL |
| P3 15:49 | Hooking on the Canadiens (Ivan Demidov): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% PIT |
| P3 14:14 | Roughing on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% PIT |
| P3 5:10 | Holding on the Canadiens (Adam Engstrom): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% PIT |
| P3 0:19 | Hooking on the Penguins (Kris Letang): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% MTL |
When it happened
Penguins’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 17:06 | Alexandre Texier scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% MTL | – |
| 2 | P1 10:44 | Holding on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PIT | – |
| 3 | P1 6:12 | Holding on the Penguins (Justin Brazeau): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% MTL | – |
| 4 | P2 15:23 | Brendan Gallagher scored on a wrist shot from 28 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% MTL | – |
| 5 | P2 15:02 | Slashing on the Canadiens (Noah Dobson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% PIT | – |
| 6 | P2 9:42 | Cole Caufield scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 4% chance | +9% MTL | – |
| 7 | P3 19:16 | Bryan Rust scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 14% chance | +6% PIT | – |
| 8 | P3 19:01 | Oliver Kapanen scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 10% chance | +6% MTL | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canadiens 46% · Penguins 54%
- Final margin
- Canadiens by 2
- Luck in goals
- 2.5 for the Canadiens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penguins by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Canadiens 47% · Penguins 53% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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