luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 13, 2025 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Sharks at Penguins, Dec 13, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Sharks beat the Penguins 6–5, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Sharks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Sharks.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Sharks won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Sharks.

Final (OT)

San Jose Sharks 6
Pittsburgh Penguins 5

December 13, 2025 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +57 Sharks lucky · −57 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Sharks win 4, Penguins win 6.

  1. 1 SJS 3 PIT 0
  2. 2 SJS 5 PIT 3
  3. 3 SJS 3 PIT 2
  4. 4 SJS 5 PIT 4
  5. 5 SJS 3 PIT 4
  6. 6 SJS 3 PIT 4
  7. 7 SJS 3 PIT 5
  8. 8 SJS 2 PIT 5
  9. 9 SJS 2 PIT 5
  10. 10 SJS 0 PIT 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Sharks win 43% of them, Penguins 57%. The line is what actually happened: Sharks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Sharks by 3+17.1%
Sharks by 28.1%
Sharks by 118.0%
Penguins by 119.6%
Penguins by 29.8%
Penguins by 3+27.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 goals to the Sharks: the final margin was Sharks by 1, without the luck Penguins by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Sharks5053.95+1.05
Penguins5653.89+1.11

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 13:41 Hooking on the Penguins (Connor Clifton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SJS
P1 7:27 Tripping on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 4:59 Hooking on the Sharks (Will Smith): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 17:45 Hooking on the Sharks (Nick Leddy): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 1:41 High sticking on the Sharks (Dmitry Orlov): 2 minutes on the power play +2% PIT
P3 17:05 Holding on the Penguins (Ryan Graves): 2 minutes on the power play +1% SJS
P3 16:30 Roughing on the Sharks (Macklin Celebrini): 2 minutes on the power play +1% PIT
P3 14:21 Hooking on the Penguins (Connor Dewar): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS
P3 13:06 Broken stick on the Penguins (Erik Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play 0% SJS

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Sharks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 9:33 Tyler Toffoli scored on a wrist shot from 59 feetShooting · 1% chance +17% SJS –
2 P1 7:19 Sidney Crosby scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 18% chance +14% PIT –
3 P2 19:41 Rutger McGroarty scored on a wrist shot from 41 feetShooting · 3% chance +18% PIT –
4 P2 10:18 Kevin Hayes scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 14% chance +13% PIT –
5 P2 0:07 Bryan Rust scored on a slap shot from 26 feetShooting · 18% chance +5% PIT –
6 P3 2:27 Macklin Celebrini scored on a slap shot from 42 feetShooting · 7% chance +6% SJS –
7 P3 1:38 Tyler Toffoli scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 22% chance +34% SJS –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Sharks won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% SJS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Sharks 45% · Penguins 55%

Final margin
Sharks by 1
Luck in goals
1.4 for the Sharks
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Sharks 43% · Penguins 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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