luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 9, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Ducks at Penguins, Dec 9, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Ducks beat the Penguins 4–3, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Penguins win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Ducks.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Ducks won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Ducks.

Final (SO)

Anaheim Ducks 4
Pittsburgh Penguins 3

December 9, 2025 · PPG Paints Arena

Luck index +83 Ducks very lucky · −83 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ducks win 2, Penguins win 8.

  1. 1 ANA 4 PIT 3
  2. 2 ANA 2 PIT 1
  3. 3 ANA 3 PIT 4
  4. 4 ANA 2 PIT 4
  5. 5 ANA 1 PIT 4
  6. 6 ANA 1 PIT 4
  7. 7 ANA 0 PIT 4
  8. 8 ANA 2 PIT 7
  9. 9 ANA 1 PIT 7
  10. 10 ANA 0 PIT 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Ducks win 17% of them, Penguins 83%. The line is what actually happened: Ducks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ducks by 3+2.5%
Ducks by 22.3%
Ducks by 111.8%
Penguins by 113.0%
Penguins by 29.7%
Penguins by 3+60.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 goals to the Ducks: the final margin was Ducks by 1, without the luck Penguins by 2.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Ducks3631.94+1.06
Penguins6134.46−1.46

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 4:13 Hooking on the Ducks (Leo Carlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 1:29 Cross checking on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P2 12:38 Too many men on the ice on the Ducks (ANA): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PIT
P2 9:50 Interference on the Penguins (Danton Heinen): 2 minutes on the power play +5% ANA
P3 4:02 Holding the stick on the Ducks (Ville Husso): 2 minutes on the power play +9% PIT
P3 0:18 Tripping on the Ducks (Chris Kreider): 2 minutes on the power play +6% PIT

When it happened

Penguins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Penguins were ahead in it, below while the Ducks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:11 Noel Acciari scored on a wrist shot from 30 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% PIT –
2 P2 14:41 Jackson LaCombe scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 2% chance +19% ANA –
3 P2 5:50 Troy Terry scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 7% chance +21% ANA –
4 P2 0:19 Tommy Novak scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 10% chance +23% PIT –
5 P3 4:02 Holding the stick on the Ducks (Ville Husso): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% PIT –
6 P3 3:55 Anthony Mantha scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 7% chance +37% PIT –
7 P3 0:01 Beckett Sennecke scored on a shot from 13 feetShooting · 15% chance +41% ANA –
8 SO The game turned hereThe Ducks won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% ANA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ducks 12% · Penguins 88%

Final margin
Ducks by 1
Luck in goals
3.3 for the Ducks
Luck-adjusted margin
Penguins by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Ducks 17% · Penguins 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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