luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 10, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Panthers at Mammoth, Dec 10, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Mammoth 4–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 10 points of win probability to the Panthers.

The biggest swing (P3, 0:52 left): Anton Lundell scored on a wrist shot from 5 feet, worth 39 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Florida Panthers 4
Utah Mammoth 3

December 10, 2025 · Delta Center

Luck index +43 Panthers lucky · −43 Mammoth

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 6, Mammoth win 4.

  1. 1 FLA 8 UTA 3
  2. 2 FLA 6 UTA 2
  3. 3 FLA 4 UTA 1
  4. 4 FLA 3 UTA 1
  5. 5 FLA 1 UTA 0
  6. 6 FLA 5 UTA 4
  7. 7 FLA 4 UTA 5
  8. 8 FLA 0 UTA 1
  9. 9 FLA 2 UTA 4
  10. 10 FLA 0 UTA 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Panthers win 57% of them, Mammoth 43%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 3+30.5%
Panthers by 29.8%
Panthers by 116.9%
Mammoth by 118.1%
Mammoth by 28.3%
Mammoth by 3+16.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Mammoth: the final margin was Panthers by 1, without the luck Panthers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Panthers6444.19−0.19
Mammoth4333.54−0.54

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:59 Slashing on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P1 0:33 High sticking on the Panthers (A.J. Greer): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 0:45 Cross checking on the Panthers (Eetu Luostarinen): 2 minutes on the power play +6% UTA
P3 18:55 Holding on the Mammoth (Mikhail Sergachev): 2 minutes on the power play +6% FLA
P3 13:12 Hooking on the Mammoth (Sean Durzi): 2 minutes on the power play +7% FLA

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 13:15 Michael Carcone missed the net with a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 7% chanceBarrett Hayton’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 31% chanceBarrett Hayton’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 31% chance +11% FLA –
2 P1 8:37 Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% UTA –
3 P1 0:43 Carter Verhaeghe scored on a snap shot from 7 feetShooting · 19% chance +15% FLA –
4 P2 18:20 Sam Bennett scored on a snap shot from 32 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% FLA –
5 P2 16:36 Sam Bennett scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% FLA –
6 P2 16:23 Dylan Guenther scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 11% chance +14% UTA –
7 P2 5:23 Jack McBain scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 9% chance +21% UTA –
8 P3 0:52 Anton Lundell scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 14% chance +39% FLA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 69% · Mammoth 31%

Final margin
Panthers by 1
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Mammoth
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 57% · Mammoth 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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