Capitals unlucky 2 
Red Wings lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 24% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Dec 15, 2025 – Dec 21, 2025
NHL week 11: who deserved to win
10 of 57 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Red Wings beat the Capitals 3–2 (OT) in a game they win 24% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 57 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Capitals unlucky 2 Red Wings lucky 3 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 24% of replays 
Canucks lucky 5 
Bruins unlucky 4 Replays favor loser · Canucks win 26% of replays 
Kraken lucky 4 
Sharks unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 26% of replays 
Kings lucky 2 
Lightning unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Kings win 30% of replays 
Penguins unlucky 0 
Canadiens lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 30% of replays 
Sabres lucky 3 
Devils unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Sabres win 35% of replays 
Stars lucky 5 Sharks unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Stars win 35% of replays Canucks lucky 3 
Rangers unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Canucks win 37% of replays 
Golden Knights unlucky 3 
Oilers lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Oilers win 37% of replays Golden Knights unlucky 3 
Flames lucky 6 Replays favor loser · Flames win 38% of replays Kings 2 
Panthers 3 Coin flip · Panthers win 41% of replays 
Flyers 4 Canadiens 1 Coin flip · Flyers win 41% of replays Devils 2 
Mammoth 1 Coin flip · Devils win 43% of replays 
Maple Leafs 1 Stars 5 Coin flip · Stars win 44% of replays Kings 1 Stars 4 Coin flip · Stars win 47% of replays 
Ducks 4 Rangers 1 Coin flip · Ducks win 49% of replays Mammoth 1 Bruins 4 Coin flip · Bruins win 49% of replays 
Senators 3 
Jets 2 Coin flip · Senators win 50% of replays Mammoth 4 Red Wings 1 Coin flip · Mammoth win 50% of replays Canucks 4 
Islanders 1 Coin flip · Canucks win 51% of replays 
Avalanche 5 Kraken 3 Coin flip · Avalanche win 51% of replays Flyers 3 Sabres 5 Coin flip · Sabres win 52% of replays Panthers 5 Lightning 2 Coin flip · Panthers win 52% of replays 
Wild 5 
Blue Jackets 2 Coin flip · Wild win 52% of replays Oilers 6 Penguins 4 Coin flip · Oilers win 54% of replays Rangers 2 
Blues 1 Coin flip · Rangers win 55% of replays Flyers 4 Rangers 5 Coin flip · Rangers win 55% of replays Ducks 3 Blue Jackets 4 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 56% of replays Capitals 0 Wild 5 Coin flip · Wild win 56% of replays Devils 2 Golden Knights 1 Coin flip · Devils win 56% of replays Oilers 3 Bruins 1 Coin flip · Oilers win 56% of replays Maple Leafs 3 
Predators 5 Coin flip · Predators win 57% of replays Blues 6 Panthers 2 Coin flip · Blues win 57% of replays Penguins 0 Senators 4 Coin flip · Senators win 58% of replays Stars 8 Ducks 3 Coin flip · Stars win 58% of replays 
Blackhawks 2 Maple Leafs 3 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 59% of replays Blue Jackets 3 Ducks 4 Coin flip · Ducks win 59% of replays 
Hurricanes 3 Panthers 4 Coin flip · Panthers win 60% of replays Avalanche 5 Wild 1 Replays agree · Avalanche win 60% of replays Predators 5 Blues 2 Replays agree · Predators win 61% of replays Senators 6 Bruins 2 Replays agree · Senators win 62% of replays Kraken 2 Flames 4 Replays agree · Flames win 63% of replays Oilers 2 Wild 5 Replays agree · Wild win 63% of replays Rangers 1 Predators 2 Replays agree · Predators win 63% of replays Flames 3 Sharks 6 Replays agree · Sharks win 66% of replays Islanders 2 Sabres 3 Replays agree · Sabres win 67% of replays Maple Leafs 0 Capitals 4 Replays agree · Capitals win 67% of replays Islanders 2 Red Wings 3 Replays agree · Red Wings win 67% of replays Jets 3 Mammoth 4 Replays agree · Mammoth win 69% of replays Jets 0 Blues 1 Replays agree · Blues win 70% of replays Hurricanes 4 Predators 1 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 70% of replays Hurricanes 4 Lightning 6 Replays agree · Lightning win 71% of replays Blackhawks 1 Canadiens 4 Replays agree · Canadiens win 72% of replays Red Wings 5 Capitals 2 Replays agree · Red Wings win 73% of replays Canadiens 3 Penguins 4 Replays agree · Penguins win 74% of replays Jets 2 Avalanche 3 Replays agree · Avalanche win 77% of replays Blackhawks 4 Senators 6 Replays agree · Senators win 81% of replays Week 11 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Wings | W 3–2 OT vs Capitals Dec 21, 2025 | 24% | +76 |
| 2 | Canucks | W 5–4 SO @ Bruins Dec 20, 2025 | 26% | +74 |
| 3 | Kraken | W 4–2 @ Sharks Dec 20, 2025 | 26% | +74 |
| 4 | Kings | W 2–1 @ Lightning Dec 18, 2025 | 30% | +70 |
| 5 | Canadiens | W 4–0 vs Penguins Dec 20, 2025 | 30% | +70 |
| 6 | Sabres | W 3–1 @ Devils Dec 21, 2025 | 35% | +66 |
| 7 | Stars | W 5–3 @ Sharks Dec 18, 2025 | 35% | +65 |
| 8 | Canucks | W 3–0 @ Rangers Dec 16, 2025 | 37% | +63 |
| 9 | Oilers | W 4–3 vs Golden Knights Dec 21, 2025 | 37% | +63 |
| 10 | Flames | W 6–3 vs Golden Knights Dec 20, 2025 | 38% | +62 |
| 11 | Panthers | W 3–2 vs Kings Dec 17, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 12 | Flyers | W 4–1 @ Canadiens Dec 16, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 13 | Devils | W 2–1 @ Mammoth Dec 19, 2025 | 43% | +57 |
| 14 | Stars | W 5–1 vs Maple Leafs Dec 21, 2025 | 44% | +56 |
| 15 | Stars | W 4–1 vs Kings Dec 15, 2025 | 47% | +53 |
| 16 | Ducks | W 4–1 @ Rangers Dec 15, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 17 | Bruins | W 4–1 vs Mammoth Dec 16, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 18 | Senators | W 3–2 OT @ Jets Dec 15, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 19 | Mammoth | W 4–1 @ Red Wings Dec 17, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 20 | Canucks | W 4–1 @ Islanders Dec 19, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 21 | Avalanche | W 5–3 @ Kraken Dec 16, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 22 | Sabres | W 5–3 vs Flyers Dec 18, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 23 | Panthers | W 5–2 @ Lightning Dec 15, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 24 | Wild | W 5–2 @ Blue Jackets Dec 18, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 25 | Oilers | W 6–4 @ Penguins Dec 16, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 26 | Rangers | W 2–1 OT @ Blues Dec 18, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 27 | Rangers | W 5–4 SO vs Flyers Dec 20, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 28 | Blue Jackets | W 4–3 OT vs Ducks Dec 16, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 29 | Wild | W 5–0 vs Capitals Dec 16, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 30 | Devils | W 2–1 SO @ Golden Knights Dec 17, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 31 | Oilers | W 3–1 @ Bruins Dec 18, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 32 | Predators | W 5–3 vs Maple Leafs Dec 20, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 33 | Blues | W 6–2 @ Panthers Dec 20, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 34 | Senators | W 4–0 vs Penguins Dec 18, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 35 | Stars | W 8–3 @ Ducks Dec 19, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 36 | Maple Leafs | W 3–2 vs Blackhawks Dec 16, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 37 | Ducks | W 4–3 vs Blue Jackets Dec 20, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 38 | Panthers | W 4–3 SO vs Hurricanes Dec 19, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 39 | Avalanche | W 5–1 @ Wild Dec 21, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 40 | Predators | W 5–2 @ Blues Dec 15, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 41 | Senators | W 6–2 @ Bruins Dec 21, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 42 | Flames | W 4–2 vs Kraken Dec 18, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 43 | Wild | W 5–2 vs Oilers Dec 20, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 44 | Predators | W 2–1 vs Rangers Dec 21, 2025 | 63% | +37 |
| 45 | Sharks | W 6–3 vs Flames Dec 16, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 46 | Sabres | W 3–2 SO vs Islanders Dec 20, 2025 | 67% | +33 |
| 47 | Capitals | W 4–0 vs Maple Leafs Dec 18, 2025 | 67% | +33 |
| 48 | Red Wings | W 3–2 vs Islanders Dec 16, 2025 | 67% | +33 |
| 49 | Mammoth | W 4–3 OT vs Jets Dec 21, 2025 | 69% | +31 |
| 50 | Blues | W 1–0 vs Jets Dec 17, 2025 | 70% | +31 |
| 51 | Hurricanes | W 4–1 @ Predators Dec 17, 2025 | 70% | +30 |
| 52 | Lightning | W 6–4 vs Hurricanes Dec 20, 2025 | 71% | +29 |
| 53 | Canadiens | W 4–1 vs Blackhawks Dec 18, 2025 | 72% | +29 |
| 54 | Red Wings | W 5–2 @ Capitals Dec 20, 2025 | 73% | +27 |
| 55 | Penguins | W 4–3 SO vs Canadiens Dec 21, 2025 | 74% | +26 |
| 56 | Avalanche | W 3–2 vs Jets Dec 19, 2025 | 77% | +23 |
| 57 | Senators | W 6–4 vs Blackhawks Dec 20, 2025 | 81% | +19 |
| 58 | Blackhawks | L 4–6 @ Senators Dec 20, 2025 | 19% | −19 |
| 59 | Jets | L 2–3 @ Avalanche Dec 19, 2025 | 23% | −23 |
| 60 | Canadiens | L 3–4 SO @ Penguins Dec 21, 2025 | 26% | −26 |
| 61 | Capitals | L 2–5 vs Red Wings Dec 20, 2025 | 27% | −27 |
| 62 | Blackhawks | L 1–4 @ Canadiens Dec 18, 2025 | 29% | −29 |
| 63 | Hurricanes | L 4–6 @ Lightning Dec 20, 2025 | 29% | −29 |
| 64 | Predators | L 1–4 vs Hurricanes Dec 17, 2025 | 30% | −30 |
| 65 | Jets | L 0–1 @ Blues Dec 17, 2025 | 31% | −31 |
| 66 | Jets | L 3–4 OT @ Mammoth Dec 21, 2025 | 31% | −31 |
| 67 | Islanders | L 2–3 @ Red Wings Dec 16, 2025 | 33% | −33 |
| 68 | Maple Leafs | L 0–4 @ Capitals Dec 18, 2025 | 33% | −33 |
| 69 | Islanders | L 2–3 SO @ Sabres Dec 20, 2025 | 33% | −33 |
| 70 | Flames | L 3–6 @ Sharks Dec 16, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 71 | Rangers | L 1–2 @ Predators Dec 21, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 72 | Oilers | L 2–5 @ Wild Dec 20, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 73 | Kraken | L 2–4 @ Flames Dec 18, 2025 | 37% | −37 |
| 74 | Bruins | L 2–6 vs Senators Dec 21, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 75 | Blues | L 2–5 vs Predators Dec 15, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 76 | Wild | L 1–5 vs Avalanche Dec 21, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 77 | Hurricanes | L 3–4 SO @ Panthers Dec 19, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 78 | Blue Jackets | L 3–4 @ Ducks Dec 20, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 79 | Blackhawks | L 2–3 @ Maple Leafs Dec 16, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 80 | Ducks | L 3–8 vs Stars Dec 19, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 81 | Penguins | L 0–4 @ Senators Dec 18, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 82 | Panthers | L 2–6 vs Blues Dec 20, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 83 | Maple Leafs | L 3–5 @ Predators Dec 20, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 84 | Bruins | L 1–3 vs Oilers Dec 18, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 85 | Golden Knights | L 1–2 SO vs Devils Dec 17, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 86 | Ducks | L 3–4 OT @ Blue Jackets Dec 16, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 87 | Capitals | L 0–5 @ Wild Dec 16, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 88 | Flyers | L 4–5 SO @ Rangers Dec 20, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 89 | Blues | L 1–2 OT vs Rangers Dec 18, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 90 | Penguins | L 4–6 vs Oilers Dec 16, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 91 | Blue Jackets | L 2–5 vs Wild Dec 18, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 92 | Lightning | L 2–5 vs Panthers Dec 15, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 93 | Flyers | L 3–5 @ Sabres Dec 18, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 94 | Kraken | L 3–5 vs Avalanche Dec 16, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 95 | Islanders | L 1–4 vs Canucks Dec 19, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 96 | Red Wings | L 1–4 vs Mammoth Dec 17, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 97 | Jets | L 2–3 OT vs Senators Dec 15, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 98 | Mammoth | L 1–4 @ Bruins Dec 16, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 99 | Rangers | L 1–4 vs Ducks Dec 15, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 100 | Kings | L 1–4 @ Stars Dec 15, 2025 | 53% | −53 |
| 101 | Maple Leafs | L 1–5 @ Stars Dec 21, 2025 | 56% | −56 |
| 102 | Mammoth | L 1–2 vs Devils Dec 19, 2025 | 57% | −57 |
| 103 | Canadiens | L 1–4 vs Flyers Dec 16, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 104 | Kings | L 2–3 @ Panthers Dec 17, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 105 | Golden Knights | L 3–6 @ Flames Dec 20, 2025 | 62% | −62 |
| 106 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 @ Oilers Dec 21, 2025 | 63% | −63 |
| 107 | Rangers | L 0–3 vs Canucks Dec 16, 2025 | 63% | −63 |
| 108 | Sharks | L 3–5 vs Stars Dec 18, 2025 | 65% | −65 |
| 109 | Devils | L 1–3 vs Sabres Dec 21, 2025 | 66% | −66 |
| 110 | Penguins | L 0–4 @ Canadiens Dec 20, 2025 | 70% | −70 |
| 111 | Lightning | L 1–2 vs Kings Dec 18, 2025 | 70% | −70 |
| 112 | Sharks | L 2–4 vs Kraken Dec 20, 2025 | 74% | −74 |
| 113 | Bruins | L 4–5 SO vs Canucks Dec 20, 2025 | 74% | −74 |
| 114 | Capitals | L 2–3 OT @ Red Wings Dec 21, 2025 | 76% | −76 |