2025-26 regular season · December 16, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Oilers at Penguins, Dec 16, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Penguins 6–4, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Oilers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 21 points of win probability to the Oilers.
The biggest swing (P2, 15:25 left): Matt Savoie scored on a wrist shot from 25 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Edmonton Oilers | 6 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Oilers lucky · −46 Penguins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oilers win 5, Penguins win 5.
- 1 EDM 5 PIT 0
- 2 EDM 7 PIT 4
- 3 EDM 5 PIT 3
- 4 EDM 5 PIT 4
- 5 EDM 6 PIT 5
- 6 EDM 3 PIT 4
- 7 EDM 2 PIT 3
- 8 EDM 2 PIT 4
- 9 EDM 2 PIT 5
- 10 EDM 2 PIT 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Oilers win 54% of them, Penguins 46%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oilers by 3+ | 24.6% |
| Oilers by 2 | 10.0% |
| Oilers by 1 | 19.7% |
| Penguins by 1 | 21.7% |
| Penguins by 2 | 8.0% |
| Penguins by 3+ | 15.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Oilers | 45 | 5 | 3.25 | +1.75 |
 Penguins | 44 | 4 | 3.28 | +0.72 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 13:46 | Tripping on the Oilers (Mattias Ekholm): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P1 10:48 | Interference on the Penguins (Danton Heinen): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P1 9:40 | Hooking on the Penguins (Bryan Rust): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P1 9:22 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Penguins (Brett Kulak): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 14:30 | Roughing on the Oilers (Leon Draisaitl): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P2 11:54 | Cross checking on the Penguins (Justin Brazeau): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 5:58 | Interference on the Oilers (Darnell Nurse): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P2 1:46 | Cross checking on the Oilers (Alec Regula): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P3 11:46 | High sticking double minor on the Oilers (Ty Emberson): 4 minutes on the power play | +1% PIT |
When it happened
Penguins’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 8:22 | Zach Hyman scored on a backhand shot from 2 feetShooting · 36% chance | +11% EDM | – |
| 2 | P1 8:08 | Connor McDavid scored on a backhand shot from 4 feetShooting · 29% chance | +11% EDM | – |
| 3 | P1 0:45 | Tommy Novak scored on a wrist shot from 12 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% PIT | – |
| 4 | P2 15:25 | Matt Savoie scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% EDM | – |
| 5 | P2 13:36 | Erik Karlsson scored on a slap shot from 46 feetShooting · 6% chance | +15% PIT | – |
| 6 | P2 11:54 | Cross checking on the Penguins (Justin Brazeau): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% EDM | – |
| 7 | P2 10:24 | Evan Bouchard scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 10% chance | +15% EDM | – |
| 8 | P3 13:13 | Vasily Podkolzin scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 11% chance | +5% EDM | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oilers 62% · Penguins 38%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 2
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Oilers 54% · Penguins 46% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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