luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 20, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Penguins at Canadiens, Dec 20, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Canadiens beat the Penguins 4–0, but the replays lean toward the Penguins: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 29 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

The biggest swing (P1, 3:19 left): Juraj Slafkovský scored on a snap shot from 21 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Canadiens.

Final

Pittsburgh Penguins 0
Montreal Canadiens 4

December 20, 2025 · Centre Bell

Luck index +70 Canadiens very lucky · −70 Penguins

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Penguins win 7, Canadiens win 3.

  1. 1 PIT 6 MTL 0
  2. 2 PIT 6 MTL 2
  3. 3 PIT 3 MTL 0
  4. 4 PIT 6 MTL 3
  5. 5 PIT 3 MTL 0
  6. 6 PIT 6 MTL 5
  7. 7 PIT 7 MTL 6
  8. 8 PIT 3 MTL 4
  9. 9 PIT 3 MTL 4
  10. 10 PIT 1 MTL 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Penguins win 70% of them, Canadiens 30%. The line is what actually happened: Canadiens by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Penguins by 3+43.5%
Penguins by 210.8%
Penguins by 115.8%
Canadiens by 117.0%
Canadiens by 25.2%
Canadiens by 3+7.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 goals to the Canadiens: the final margin was Canadiens by 4, without the luck Canadiens by 2.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Penguins5204.57−4.57
Canadiens3132.35+0.65

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:56 Boarding on the Canadiens (Arber Xhekaj): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PIT
P1 4:10 Tripping on the Penguins (Kevin Hayes): 2 minutes on the power play +4% MTL
P2 8:42 Delaying game puck over glass on the Canadiens (Nick Suzuki): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PIT
P3 11:31 Cross checking on the Canadiens (Lane Hutson): 2 minutes on the power play +1% PIT

When it happened

Canadiens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canadiens were ahead in it, below while the Penguins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:56 Boarding on the Canadiens (Arber Xhekaj): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PIT –
2 P1 13:54 Rickard Rakell missed the net with a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 17% chance +3% MTL –
3 P1 4:10 Tripping on the Penguins (Kevin Hayes): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% MTL –
4 P1 3:19 Juraj Slafkovský scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 21% chance +14% MTL –
5 P1 1:11 Owen Beck scored on a snap shot from 34 feetShooting · 7% chance +13% MTL –
6 P2 19:10 Connor Dewar’s snap shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 21% chance +3% MTL –
7 P2 8:18 Anthony Mantha missed the net with a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 21% chance +3% MTL –
8 P2 7:46 Josh Anderson scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 14% chance +6% MTL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Penguins 14% · Canadiens 86%

Final margin
Canadiens by 4
Luck in goals
1.6 for the Canadiens
Luck-adjusted margin
Canadiens by 2.4
Replay with same day's form
Penguins 70% · Canadiens 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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