luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 19, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Devils at Mammoth, Dec 19, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Devils beat the Mammoth 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Devils win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 42 points of win probability to the Devils.

The biggest swing (P2, 8:39 left): Connor Brown scored on a snap shot from 19 feet, worth 19 points of win probability to the Devils.

Final

New Jersey Devils 2
Utah Mammoth 1

December 19, 2025 · Delta Center

Luck index +57 Devils lucky · −57 Mammoth

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Devils win 4, Mammoth win 6.

  1. 1 NJD 5 UTA 2
  2. 2 NJD 5 UTA 3
  3. 3 NJD 1 UTA 0
  4. 4 NJD 4 UTA 3
  5. 5 NJD 2 UTA 3
  6. 6 NJD 2 UTA 3
  7. 7 NJD 2 UTA 4
  8. 8 NJD 1 UTA 4
  9. 9 NJD 0 UTA 3
  10. 10 NJD 0 UTA 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Devils win 43% of them, Mammoth 57%. The line is what actually happened: Devils by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Devils by 3+13.6%
Devils by 29.6%
Devils by 119.4%
Mammoth by 121.2%
Mammoth by 211.9%
Mammoth by 3+24.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Devils: the final margin was Devils by 1, without the luck Mammoth by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Devils3222.30−0.30
Mammoth4513.08−2.08

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:50 Tripping on the Devils (Dougie Hamilton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P1 9:00 Tripping on the Mammoth (Daniil But): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P1 7:57 Cross checking on the Mammoth (Nate Schmidt): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 18:44 High sticking on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 15:25 Roughing on the Devils (Angus Crookshank): 2 minutes on the power play +4% UTA
P2 12:02 High sticking on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NJD
P2 0:34 Hooking on the Devils (Brenden Dillon): 2 minutes on the power play +6% UTA
P3 16:49 Tripping on the Mammoth (Mikhail Sergachev): 2 minutes on the power play +6% NJD
P3 1:21 Tripping on the Devils (Dawson Mercer): 2 minutes on the power play +6% UTA

When it happened

Mammoth’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Mammoth were ahead in it, below while the Devils were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 10:25 Daniil But scored on a backhand shot from 19 feetShooting · 13% chance +14% UTA –
2 P2 8:39 Connor Brown scored on a snap shot from 19 feetShooting · 11% chance +19% NJD –
3 P2 0:34 Hooking on the Devils (Brenden Dillon): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% UTA –
4 P3 16:49 Tripping on the Mammoth (Mikhail Sergachev): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% NJD –
5 P3 15:40 Stefan Noesen scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 35% chance +18% NJD –
6 P3 7:12 Jack McBain’s wrist shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance +6% NJD –
7 P3 4:42 Sean Durzi’s snap shot from 22 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance +6% NJD –
8 P3 1:21 Tripping on the Devils (Dawson Mercer): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% UTA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Devils 39% · Mammoth 61%

Final margin
Devils by 1
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Devils
Luck-adjusted margin
Mammoth by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Devils 43% · Mammoth 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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