2025-26 regular season · December 17, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Mammoth at Red Wings, Dec 17, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Mammoth beat the Red Wings 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Mammoth win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 22 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
The biggest swing (P2, 18:16 left): Clayton Keller scored on a wrist shot from 16 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Mammoth.
Final
 Utah Mammoth | 4 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Red Wings | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +50 Mammoth lucky · −50 Red Wings
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Mammoth win 5, Red Wings win 5.
- 1 UTA 4 DET 0
- 2 UTA 3 DET 0
- 3 UTA 2 DET 0
- 4 UTA 4 DET 3
- 5 UTA 3 DET 2
- 6 UTA 0 DET 1
- 7 UTA 2 DET 3
- 8 UTA 0 DET 2
- 9 UTA 1 DET 4
- 10 UTA 1 DET 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Mammoth win 50% of them, Red Wings 50%. The line is what actually happened: Mammoth by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Mammoth by 3+ | 17.8% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 10.6% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 22.1% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 22.7% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 10.1% |
| Red Wings by 3+ | 16.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mammoth | 40 | 4 | 2.34 | +1.66 |
 Red Wings | 40 | 1 | 2.41 | −1.41 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 8:54 | Holding on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 13:25 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P2 10:41 | Interference on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 8:05 | High sticking on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% DET |
| P2 2:15 | Tripping on the Red Wings (Elmer Soderblom): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P2 0:45 | Cross checking on the Red Wings (Moritz Seider): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P3 17:06 | Tripping on the Red Wings (J.T. Compher): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% UTA |
| P3 11:48 | Roughing on the Mammoth (Lawson Crouse): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% DET |
When it happened
Red Wings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 7:25 | Emmitt Finnie missed the net with a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 26% chance | +4% UTA | – |
| 2 | P2 18:16 | Clayton Keller scored on a wrist shot from 16 feetShooting · 15% chance | +17% UTA | – |
| 3 | P2 13:25 | Hooking on the Red Wings (Simon Edvinsson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% UTA | – |
| 4 | P2 10:41 | Interference on the Mammoth (Clayton Keller): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DET | – |
| 5 | P2 8:05 | High sticking on the Mammoth (Barrett Hayton): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% DET | – |
| 6 | P2 5:43 | Jack McBain scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% UTA | – |
| 7 | P3 10:05 | Emmitt Finnie scored on a snap shot from 26 feetShooting · 15% chance | +12% DET | – |
| 8 | P3 4:08 | Dylan Guenther scored on a snap shot from 8 feetShooting · 24% chance | +7% UTA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Mammoth 67% · Red Wings 33%
- Final margin
- Mammoth by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.3 for the Mammoth
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mammoth by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Mammoth 50% · Red Wings 50% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 11, 2025-26
- Capitals at Red Wings Dec 21, 2025 · DET 3–2 OT · replay 24% for the winner
- Canucks at Bruins Dec 20, 2025 · VAN 5–4 SO · replay 26% for the winner
- Kings at Lightning Dec 18, 2025 · LAK 2–1 · replay 30% for the winner
- Penguins at Canadiens Dec 20, 2025 · MTL 4–0 · replay 30% for the winner
- Sabres at Devils Dec 21, 2025 · BUF 3–1 · replay 35% for the winner
- Stars at Sharks Dec 18, 2025 · DAL 5–3 · replay 35% for the winner
- Kings at Panthers Dec 17, 2025 · FLA 3–2 · replay 41% for the winner
- Flyers at Canadiens Dec 16, 2025 · PHI 4–1 · replay 41% for the winner
- Devils at Mammoth Dec 19, 2025 · NJD 2–1 · replay 43% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Stars Dec 21, 2025 · DAL 5–1 · replay 44% for the winner
- Kings at Stars Dec 15, 2025 · DAL 4–1 · replay 47% for the winner
- Mammoth at Bruins Dec 16, 2025 · BOS 4–1 · replay 49% for the winner