luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 21, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Stars, Dec 21, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Stars beat the Maple Leafs 5–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Stars win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 38 points of win probability to the Stars.

The biggest swing (P2, 11:42 left): A Maple Leafs goal came off the board on review (off side), worth 18 points of win probability to the Stars.

Final

Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Dallas Stars 5

December 21, 2025 · American Airlines Center

Luck index +56 Stars lucky · −56 Maple Leafs

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 6, Stars win 4.

  1. 1 TOR 7 DAL 3
  2. 2 TOR 4 DAL 1
  3. 3 TOR 6 DAL 3
  4. 4 TOR 3 DAL 1
  5. 5 TOR 3 DAL 2
  6. 6 TOR 3 DAL 2
  7. 7 TOR 3 DAL 4
  8. 8 TOR 2 DAL 3
  9. 9 TOR 1 DAL 3
  10. 10 TOR 1 DAL 4

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 56% of them, Stars 44%. The line is what actually happened: Stars by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+24.6%
Maple Leafs by 211.6%
Maple Leafs by 119.6%
Stars by 122.1%
Stars by 28.8%
Stars by 3+13.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 goals to the Stars: the final margin was Stars by 4, without the luck Stars by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs4713.17−2.17
Stars3242.34+1.66

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 3:45 Delaying game puck over glass on the Stars (Miro Heiskanen): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 18:06 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Matias Maccelli): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P2 16:29 Hooking on the Stars (Jason Robertson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 11:42 A Maple Leafs goal came off the board on review (off side) +18% DAL
P2 9:43 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (John Tavares): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DAL
P2 5:29 Interference on the Stars (Ilya Lyubushkin): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 2:55 High sticking on the Stars (Thomas Harley): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P3 13:24 Interference on the Maple Leafs (Philippe Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +2% DAL

When it happened

Stars’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Stars were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 1:30 Jason Robertson scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 15% chance +15% DAL –
2 P2 11:42 A Maple Leafs goal came off the board on review (off side)Overturned goals +18% DAL –
3 P2 2:55 High sticking on the Stars (Thomas Harley): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% TOR –
4 P2 2:13 Bobby McMann’s snap shot from 15 feet was savedShooting · 26% chance +6% DAL –
5 P3 16:07 John Tavares missed the net with a snap shot from 16 feetShooting · 18% chance +5% DAL –
6 P3 14:57 Sam Steel scored on a tip from 34 feetShooting · 3% chance +14% DAL –
7 P3 11:21 Scott Laughton scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 6% chance +13% TOR –
8 P3 7:50 Jamie Benn scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 8% chance +11% DAL –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 34% · Stars 66%

Final margin
Stars by 4
Luck in goals
3.1 for the Stars
Luck-adjusted margin
Stars by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 56% · Stars 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 11 2025-26 games · Maple Leafs · Stars

More from week 11, 2025-26

Every game of week 11, 2025-26