Kraken lucky 3 
Ducks unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 24% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Dec 22, 2025 – Dec 28, 2025
NHL week 12: who deserved to win
7 of 35 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Kraken beat the Ducks 3–1 in a game they win 24% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 35 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Kraken lucky 3 Ducks unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 24% of replays 
Flyers unlucky 1 Kraken lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 25% of replays 
Blackhawks lucky 4 
Stars unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Blackhawks win 27% of replays 
Sabres lucky 3 
Senators unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Sabres win 29% of replays 
Lightning lucky 4 
Panthers unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Lightning win 31% of replays 
Canadiens unlucky 4 Lightning lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Lightning win 35% of replays Kraken lucky 3 
Kings unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 39% of replays 
Rangers 7 
Capitals 3 Coin flip · Rangers win 41% of replays Stars 3 
Red Wings 4 Coin flip · Red Wings win 42% of replays 
Wild 4 
Jets 3 Coin flip · Wild win 45% of replays 
Devils 1 
Islanders 2 Coin flip · Islanders win 46% of replays 
Penguins 7 Blackhawks 3 Coin flip · Penguins win 46% of replays Canadiens 6 
Bruins 2 Coin flip · Canadiens win 49% of replays Panthers 5 
Hurricanes 2 Coin flip · Panthers win 51% of replays 
Oilers 2 
Flames 3 Coin flip · Flames win 52% of replays 
Predators 2 
Blues 3 Coin flip · Blues win 53% of replays Senators 5 
Maple Leafs 7 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 54% of replays Blues 1 Lightning 4 Coin flip · Lightning win 56% of replays 
Avalanche 6 
Golden Knights 5 Coin flip · Avalanche win 56% of replays Predators 3 Wild 2 Coin flip · Predators win 57% of replays Maple Leafs 2 Red Wings 3 Coin flip · Red Wings win 57% of replays Bruins 1 Sabres 4 Coin flip · Sabres win 58% of replays Rangers 0 Islanders 2 Coin flip · Islanders win 58% of replays 
Blue Jackets 3 Kings 1 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 60% of replays Flyers 3 Blackhawks 1 Coin flip · Flyers win 60% of replays 
Mammoth 0 Avalanche 1 Replays agree · Avalanche win 60% of replays Ducks 1 Kings 6 Replays agree · Kings win 62% of replays Capitals 4 Devils 3 Replays agree · Capitals win 65% of replays Penguins 3 Maple Leafs 6 Replays agree · Maple Leafs win 66% of replays 
Sharks 6 
Canucks 3 Replays agree · Sharks win 70% of replays Sharks 2 Golden Knights 7 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 75% of replays Canucks 2 Flyers 5 Replays agree · Flyers win 77% of replays Red Wings 2 Hurricanes 5 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 80% of replays Flames 1 Oilers 5 Replays agree · Oilers win 82% of replays Islanders 2 Blue Jackets 4 Replays agree · Blue Jackets win 85% of replays Week 12 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kraken | W 3–1 @ Ducks Dec 22, 2025 | 24% | +76 |
| 2 | Kraken | W 4–1 vs Flyers Dec 28, 2025 | 25% | +75 |
| 3 | Blackhawks | W 4–3 SO @ Stars Dec 27, 2025 | 27% | +73 |
| 4 | Sabres | W 3–2 OT @ Senators Dec 23, 2025 | 29% | +71 |
| 5 | Lightning | W 4–2 @ Panthers Dec 27, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 6 | Lightning | W 5–4 SO vs Canadiens Dec 28, 2025 | 35% | +65 |
| 7 | Kraken | W 3–2 @ Kings Dec 23, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 8 | Rangers | W 7–3 @ Capitals Dec 23, 2025 | 41% | +59 |
| 9 | Red Wings | W 4–3 OT vs Stars Dec 23, 2025 | 42% | +58 |
| 10 | Wild | W 4–3 OT @ Jets Dec 27, 2025 | 45% | +55 |
| 11 | Islanders | W 2–1 vs Devils Dec 23, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 12 | Penguins | W 7–3 @ Blackhawks Dec 28, 2025 | 46% | +54 |
| 13 | Canadiens | W 6–2 @ Bruins Dec 23, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 14 | Panthers | W 5–2 @ Hurricanes Dec 23, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 15 | Flames | W 3–2 vs Oilers Dec 27, 2025 | 52% | +48 |
| 16 | Blues | W 3–2 vs Predators Dec 27, 2025 | 53% | +47 |
| 17 | Maple Leafs | W 7–5 vs Senators Dec 27, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 18 | Lightning | W 4–1 vs Blues Dec 22, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 19 | Avalanche | W 6–5 SO @ Golden Knights Dec 27, 2025 | 56% | +44 |
| 20 | Predators | W 3–2 OT @ Wild Dec 23, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 21 | Red Wings | W 3–2 OT vs Maple Leafs Dec 28, 2025 | 57% | +43 |
| 22 | Sabres | W 4–1 vs Bruins Dec 27, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 23 | Islanders | W 2–0 vs Rangers Dec 27, 2025 | 58% | +42 |
| 24 | Blue Jackets | W 3–1 @ Kings Dec 22, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 25 | Flyers | W 3–1 @ Blackhawks Dec 23, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 26 | Avalanche | W 1–0 vs Mammoth Dec 23, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 27 | Kings | W 6–1 vs Ducks Dec 27, 2025 | 62% | +38 |
| 28 | Capitals | W 4–3 OT @ Devils Dec 27, 2025 | 65% | +35 |
| 29 | Maple Leafs | W 6–3 vs Penguins Dec 23, 2025 | 66% | +34 |
| 30 | Sharks | W 6–3 @ Canucks Dec 27, 2025 | 70% | +30 |
| 31 | Golden Knights | W 7–2 vs Sharks Dec 23, 2025 | 75% | +25 |
| 32 | Flyers | W 5–2 vs Canucks Dec 22, 2025 | 77% | +23 |
| 33 | Hurricanes | W 5–2 vs Red Wings Dec 27, 2025 | 80% | +20 |
| 34 | Oilers | W 5–1 vs Flames Dec 23, 2025 | 82% | +18 |
| 35 | Blue Jackets | W 4–2 vs Islanders Dec 28, 2025 | 85% | +15 |
| 36 | Islanders | L 2–4 @ Blue Jackets Dec 28, 2025 | 15% | −15 |
| 37 | Flames | L 1–5 @ Oilers Dec 23, 2025 | 18% | −18 |
| 38 | Red Wings | L 2–5 @ Hurricanes Dec 27, 2025 | 20% | −20 |
| 39 | Canucks | L 2–5 @ Flyers Dec 22, 2025 | 23% | −23 |
| 40 | Sharks | L 2–7 @ Golden Knights Dec 23, 2025 | 25% | −25 |
| 41 | Canucks | L 3–6 vs Sharks Dec 27, 2025 | 30% | −30 |
| 42 | Penguins | L 3–6 @ Maple Leafs Dec 23, 2025 | 34% | −34 |
| 43 | Devils | L 3–4 OT vs Capitals Dec 27, 2025 | 35% | −35 |
| 44 | Ducks | L 1–6 @ Kings Dec 27, 2025 | 38% | −38 |
| 45 | Mammoth | L 0–1 @ Avalanche Dec 23, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 46 | Blackhawks | L 1–3 vs Flyers Dec 23, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 47 | Kings | L 1–3 vs Blue Jackets Dec 22, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 48 | Rangers | L 0–2 @ Islanders Dec 27, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 49 | Bruins | L 1–4 @ Sabres Dec 27, 2025 | 42% | −42 |
| 50 | Maple Leafs | L 2–3 OT @ Red Wings Dec 28, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 51 | Wild | L 2–3 OT vs Predators Dec 23, 2025 | 43% | −43 |
| 52 | Golden Knights | L 5–6 SO vs Avalanche Dec 27, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 53 | Blues | L 1–4 @ Lightning Dec 22, 2025 | 44% | −44 |
| 54 | Senators | L 5–7 @ Maple Leafs Dec 27, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 55 | Predators | L 2–3 @ Blues Dec 27, 2025 | 47% | −47 |
| 56 | Oilers | L 2–3 @ Flames Dec 27, 2025 | 48% | −48 |
| 57 | Hurricanes | L 2–5 vs Panthers Dec 23, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 58 | Bruins | L 2–6 vs Canadiens Dec 23, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 59 | Blackhawks | L 3–7 vs Penguins Dec 28, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 60 | Devils | L 1–2 @ Islanders Dec 23, 2025 | 54% | −54 |
| 61 | Jets | L 3–4 OT vs Wild Dec 27, 2025 | 55% | −55 |
| 62 | Stars | L 3–4 OT @ Red Wings Dec 23, 2025 | 58% | −58 |
| 63 | Capitals | L 3–7 vs Rangers Dec 23, 2025 | 59% | −59 |
| 64 | Kings | L 2–3 vs Kraken Dec 23, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 65 | Canadiens | L 4–5 SO @ Lightning Dec 28, 2025 | 65% | −65 |
| 66 | Panthers | L 2–4 vs Lightning Dec 27, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 67 | Senators | L 2–3 OT vs Sabres Dec 23, 2025 | 71% | −71 |
| 68 | Stars | L 3–4 SO vs Blackhawks Dec 27, 2025 | 73% | −73 |
| 69 | Flyers | L 1–4 @ Kraken Dec 28, 2025 | 75% | −75 |
| 70 | Ducks | L 1–3 vs Kraken Dec 22, 2025 | 76% | −76 |