Sharks lucky 5 
Ducks unlucky 4 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 21% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Dec 29, 2025 – Jan 4, 2026
NHL week 13: who deserved to win
12 of 56 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Sharks beat the Ducks 5–4 in a game they win 21% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 56 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Sharks lucky 5 Ducks unlucky 4 Replays favor loser · Sharks win 21% of replays 
Bruins lucky 6 
Oilers unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Bruins win 31% of replays 
Devils lucky 3 
Blue Jackets unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Devils win 31% of replays Oilers lucky 3 
Jets unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Oilers win 31% of replays 
Kraken lucky 4 
Canucks unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 32% of replays 
Predators lucky 4 
Mammoth unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Predators win 33% of replays Canucks lucky 3 Kraken unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Canucks win 33% of replays Jets unlucky 1 
Red Wings lucky 2 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 35% of replays 
Sabres unlucky 1 Blue Jackets lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Blue Jackets win 37% of replays Predators unlucky 1 Kraken lucky 4 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 39% of replays Predators lucky 4 
Golden Knights unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Predators win 39% of replays 
Rangers lucky 5 
Panthers unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Rangers win 39% of replays Bruins 3 Canucks 2 Coin flip · Bruins win 41% of replays Red Wings 3 
Penguins 4 Coin flip · Penguins win 42% of replays 
Canadiens 0 
Blues 2 Coin flip · Blues win 45% of replays 
Blackhawks 3 
Capitals 2 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 45% of replays 
Avalanche 1 Panthers 2 Coin flip · Panthers win 45% of replays 
Maple Leafs 3 
Islanders 4 Coin flip · Islanders win 45% of replays Canadiens 7 
Hurricanes 5 Coin flip · Canadiens win 45% of replays Golden Knights 2 Blackhawks 3 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 46% of replays Jets 5 Maple Leafs 6 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 47% of replays Islanders 3 Blackhawks 2 Coin flip · Islanders win 48% of replays 
Lightning 4 Ducks 3 Coin flip · Lightning win 48% of replays Jets 2 
Senators 4 Coin flip · Senators win 48% of replays Sabres 4 
Stars 1 Coin flip · Sabres win 48% of replays 
Flyers 6 Canucks 3 Coin flip · Flyers win 49% of replays Canadiens 3 Panthers 2 Coin flip · Canadiens win 49% of replays Bruins 1 
Flames 2 Coin flip · Flames win 49% of replays Mammoth 1 Devils 4 Coin flip · Devils win 49% of replays 
Wild 5 Golden Knights 2 Coin flip · Wild win 49% of replays Wild 3 Sharks 4 Coin flip · Sharks win 50% of replays Golden Knights 3 Blues 4 Coin flip · Blues win 50% of replays Lightning 5 
Kings 3 Coin flip · Lightning win 50% of replays Hurricanes 3 Devils 1 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 51% of replays Wild 4 Kings 5 Coin flip · Kings win 51% of replays Rangers 3 Capitals 6 Coin flip · Capitals win 51% of replays Devils 0 Maple Leafs 4 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 51% of replays Penguins 5 Blue Jackets 4 Coin flip · Penguins win 53% of replays Predators 4 Flames 3 Coin flip · Predators win 54% of replays Capitals 3 Panthers 5 Coin flip · Panthers win 54% of replays Mammoth 7 Islanders 2 Coin flip · Mammoth win 55% of replays Canadiens 4 Stars 3 Coin flip · Canadiens win 55% of replays Flyers 1 Flames 5 Coin flip · Flames win 55% of replays Flyers 5 Oilers 2 Coin flip · Flyers win 57% of replays Stars 3 Blackhawks 4 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 58% of replays Blue Jackets 4 Senators 1 Coin flip · Blue Jackets win 59% of replays Avalanche 5 Hurricanes 3 Coin flip · Avalanche win 60% of replays Rangers 2 Hurricanes 3 Coin flip · Hurricanes win 60% of replays Capitals 3 Senators 4 Replays agree · Senators win 61% of replays Hurricanes 1 Penguins 5 Replays agree · Penguins win 61% of replays Lightning 7 Sharks 3 Replays agree · Lightning win 62% of replays Kings 2 Avalanche 5 Replays agree · Avalanche win 64% of replays Wild 5 Ducks 2 Replays agree · Wild win 66% of replays Penguins 4 Red Wings 1 Replays agree · Penguins win 67% of replays Sabres 4 Blues 2 Replays agree · Sabres win 68% of replays Blues 1 Avalanche 6 Replays agree · Avalanche win 74% of replays Week 13 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks | W 5–4 @ Ducks Dec 29, 2025 | 21% | +79 |
| 2 | Bruins | W 6–2 @ Oilers Dec 31, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 3 | Devils | W 3–2 @ Blue Jackets Dec 31, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 4 | Oilers | W 3–1 @ Jets Dec 29, 2025 | 31% | +69 |
| 5 | Kraken | W 4–3 SO @ Canucks Jan 2, 2026 | 32% | +68 |
| 6 | Predators | W 4–3 @ Mammoth Dec 29, 2025 | 33% | +67 |
| 7 | Canucks | W 3–2 SO @ Kraken Dec 29, 2025 | 33% | +67 |
| 8 | Red Wings | W 2–1 vs Jets Dec 31, 2025 | 35% | +65 |
| 9 | Blue Jackets | W 5–1 vs Sabres Jan 3, 2026 | 37% | +63 |
| 10 | Kraken | W 4–1 vs Predators Jan 1, 2026 | 39% | +61 |
| 11 | Predators | W 4–2 @ Golden Knights Dec 31, 2025 | 39% | +61 |
| 12 | Rangers | W 5–1 @ Panthers Jan 2, 2026 | 39% | +61 |
| 13 | Bruins | W 3–2 OT @ Canucks Jan 3, 2026 | 41% | +59 |
| 14 | Penguins | W 4–3 OT vs Red Wings Jan 1, 2026 | 42% | +58 |
| 15 | Blues | W 2–0 vs Canadiens Jan 3, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 16 | Blackhawks | W 3–2 SO @ Capitals Jan 3, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 17 | Panthers | W 2–1 vs Avalanche Jan 4, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 18 | Islanders | W 4–3 OT vs Maple Leafs Jan 3, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 19 | Canadiens | W 7–5 @ Hurricanes Jan 1, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 20 | Blackhawks | W 3–2 OT vs Golden Knights Jan 4, 2026 | 46% | +54 |
| 21 | Maple Leafs | W 6–5 vs Jets Jan 1, 2026 | 47% | +53 |
| 22 | Islanders | W 3–2 SO @ Blackhawks Dec 30, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 23 | Lightning | W 4–3 OT @ Ducks Dec 31, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 24 | Senators | W 4–2 vs Jets Jan 3, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 25 | Sabres | W 4–1 @ Stars Dec 31, 2025 | 48% | +52 |
| 26 | Flyers | W 6–3 @ Canucks Dec 30, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 27 | Canadiens | W 3–2 OT @ Panthers Dec 30, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 28 | Flames | W 2–1 OT vs Bruins Dec 29, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 29 | Devils | W 4–1 vs Mammoth Jan 3, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 30 | Wild | W 5–2 @ Golden Knights Dec 29, 2025 | 49% | +51 |
| 31 | Sharks | W 4–3 SO vs Wild Dec 31, 2025 | 50% | +50 |
| 32 | Blues | W 4–3 vs Golden Knights Jan 2, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 33 | Lightning | W 5–3 @ Kings Jan 1, 2026 | 50% | +50 |
| 34 | Hurricanes | W 3–1 @ Devils Jan 4, 2026 | 51% | +49 |
| 35 | Kings | W 5–4 SO vs Wild Jan 3, 2026 | 51% | +49 |
| 36 | Capitals | W 6–3 vs Rangers Dec 31, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 37 | Maple Leafs | W 4–0 vs Devils Dec 30, 2025 | 51% | +49 |
| 38 | Penguins | W 5–4 OT @ Blue Jackets Jan 4, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 39 | Predators | W 4–3 @ Flames Jan 3, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 40 | Panthers | W 5–3 vs Capitals Dec 29, 2025 | 54% | +46 |
| 41 | Mammoth | W 7–2 @ Islanders Jan 1, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 42 | Canadiens | W 4–3 OT @ Stars Jan 4, 2026 | 55% | +45 |
| 43 | Flames | W 5–1 vs Flyers Dec 31, 2025 | 55% | +45 |
| 44 | Flyers | W 5–2 @ Oilers Jan 3, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 45 | Blackhawks | W 4–3 vs Stars Jan 1, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 46 | Blue Jackets | W 4–1 @ Senators Dec 29, 2025 | 59% | +41 |
| 47 | Avalanche | W 5–3 @ Hurricanes Jan 3, 2026 | 60% | +40 |
| 48 | Hurricanes | W 3–2 OT vs Rangers Dec 29, 2025 | 60% | +40 |
| 49 | Senators | W 4–3 vs Capitals Jan 1, 2026 | 61% | +39 |
| 50 | Penguins | W 5–1 vs Hurricanes Dec 30, 2025 | 61% | +39 |
| 51 | Lightning | W 7–3 @ Sharks Jan 3, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 52 | Avalanche | W 5–2 vs Kings Dec 29, 2025 | 64% | +36 |
| 53 | Wild | W 5–2 @ Ducks Jan 2, 2026 | 66% | +34 |
| 54 | Penguins | W 4–1 @ Red Wings Jan 3, 2026 | 67% | +33 |
| 55 | Sabres | W 4–2 @ Blues Dec 29, 2025 | 68% | +32 |
| 56 | Avalanche | W 6–1 vs Blues Dec 31, 2025 | 74% | +26 |
| 57 | Blues | L 1–6 @ Avalanche Dec 31, 2025 | 26% | −26 |
| 58 | Blues | L 2–4 vs Sabres Dec 29, 2025 | 32% | −32 |
| 59 | Red Wings | L 1–4 vs Penguins Jan 3, 2026 | 33% | −33 |
| 60 | Ducks | L 2–5 vs Wild Jan 2, 2026 | 34% | −34 |
| 61 | Kings | L 2–5 @ Avalanche Dec 29, 2025 | 36% | −36 |
| 62 | Sharks | L 3–7 vs Lightning Jan 3, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 63 | Hurricanes | L 1–5 @ Penguins Dec 30, 2025 | 39% | −39 |
| 64 | Capitals | L 3–4 @ Senators Jan 1, 2026 | 39% | −39 |
| 65 | Rangers | L 2–3 OT @ Hurricanes Dec 29, 2025 | 40% | −40 |
| 66 | Hurricanes | L 3–5 vs Avalanche Jan 3, 2026 | 40% | −40 |
| 67 | Senators | L 1–4 vs Blue Jackets Dec 29, 2025 | 41% | −41 |
| 68 | Stars | L 3–4 @ Blackhawks Jan 1, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 69 | Oilers | L 2–5 vs Flyers Jan 3, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 70 | Flyers | L 1–5 @ Flames Dec 31, 2025 | 45% | −45 |
| 71 | Stars | L 3–4 OT vs Canadiens Jan 4, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 72 | Islanders | L 2–7 vs Mammoth Jan 1, 2026 | 45% | −45 |
| 73 | Capitals | L 3–5 @ Panthers Dec 29, 2025 | 46% | −46 |
| 74 | Flames | L 3–4 vs Predators Jan 3, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 75 | Blue Jackets | L 4–5 OT vs Penguins Jan 4, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 76 | Devils | L 0–4 @ Maple Leafs Dec 30, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 77 | Rangers | L 3–6 @ Capitals Dec 31, 2025 | 49% | −49 |
| 78 | Wild | L 4–5 SO @ Kings Jan 3, 2026 | 49% | −49 |
| 79 | Devils | L 1–3 vs Hurricanes Jan 4, 2026 | 49% | −49 |
| 80 | Kings | L 3–5 vs Lightning Jan 1, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 81 | Golden Knights | L 3–4 @ Blues Jan 2, 2026 | 50% | −50 |
| 82 | Wild | L 3–4 SO @ Sharks Dec 31, 2025 | 50% | −50 |
| 83 | Golden Knights | L 2–5 vs Wild Dec 29, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 84 | Mammoth | L 1–4 @ Devils Jan 3, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 85 | Bruins | L 1–2 OT @ Flames Dec 29, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 86 | Panthers | L 2–3 OT vs Canadiens Dec 30, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 87 | Canucks | L 3–6 vs Flyers Dec 30, 2025 | 51% | −51 |
| 88 | Stars | L 1–4 vs Sabres Dec 31, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 89 | Jets | L 2–4 @ Senators Jan 3, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 90 | Ducks | L 3–4 OT vs Lightning Dec 31, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 91 | Blackhawks | L 2–3 SO vs Islanders Dec 30, 2025 | 52% | −52 |
| 92 | Jets | L 5–6 @ Maple Leafs Jan 1, 2026 | 53% | −53 |
| 93 | Golden Knights | L 2–3 OT @ Blackhawks Jan 4, 2026 | 54% | −54 |
| 94 | Hurricanes | L 5–7 vs Canadiens Jan 1, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 95 | Maple Leafs | L 3–4 OT @ Islanders Jan 3, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 96 | Avalanche | L 1–2 @ Panthers Jan 4, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 97 | Capitals | L 2–3 SO vs Blackhawks Jan 3, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 98 | Canadiens | L 0–2 @ Blues Jan 3, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 99 | Red Wings | L 3–4 OT @ Penguins Jan 1, 2026 | 58% | −58 |
| 100 | Canucks | L 2–3 OT vs Bruins Jan 3, 2026 | 59% | −59 |
| 101 | Panthers | L 1–5 vs Rangers Jan 2, 2026 | 61% | −61 |
| 102 | Golden Knights | L 2–4 vs Predators Dec 31, 2025 | 61% | −61 |
| 103 | Predators | L 1–4 @ Kraken Jan 1, 2026 | 61% | −61 |
| 104 | Sabres | L 1–5 @ Blue Jackets Jan 3, 2026 | 63% | −63 |
| 105 | Jets | L 1–2 @ Red Wings Dec 31, 2025 | 65% | −65 |
| 106 | Kraken | L 2–3 SO vs Canucks Dec 29, 2025 | 67% | −67 |
| 107 | Mammoth | L 3–4 vs Predators Dec 29, 2025 | 67% | −67 |
| 108 | Canucks | L 3–4 SO vs Kraken Jan 2, 2026 | 68% | −68 |
| 109 | Jets | L 1–3 vs Oilers Dec 29, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 110 | Blue Jackets | L 2–3 vs Devils Dec 31, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 111 | Oilers | L 2–6 vs Bruins Dec 31, 2025 | 69% | −69 |
| 112 | Ducks | L 4–5 vs Sharks Dec 29, 2025 | 79% | −79 |