2025-26 regular season · December 29, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators at Mammoth, Dec 29, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Predators beat the Mammoth 4–3, but the replays lean toward the Mammoth: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 33 points of win probability to the Predators.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 8:21 left): Steven Stamkos scored on a snap shot from 21 feet, worth 24 points of win probability to the Predators. The biggest single swing (P3, 6:43 left): Steven Stamkos scored on a wrist shot from 14 feet.
Final
 Nashville Predators | 4 |
|---|---|
 Utah Mammoth | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Predators very lucky · −67 Mammoth
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 3, Mammoth win 7.
- 1 NSH 4 UTA 1
- 2 NSH 2 UTA 1
- 3 NSH 3 UTA 2
- 4 NSH 1 UTA 2
- 5 NSH 3 UTA 4
- 6 NSH 3 UTA 5
- 7 NSH 3 UTA 6
- 8 NSH 1 UTA 4
- 9 NSH 1 UTA 5
- 10 NSH 1 UTA 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Predators win 33% of them, Mammoth 67%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 8.6% |
| Predators by 2 | 7.4% |
| Predators by 1 | 16.9% |
| Mammoth by 1 | 19.9% |
| Mammoth by 2 | 12.1% |
| Mammoth by 3+ | 35.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 36 | 4 | 2.35 | +1.65 |
 Mammoth | 52 | 3 | 3.79 | −0.79 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 15:04 | High sticking on the Predators (Nicolas Hague): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P1 3:01 | Boarding on the Predators (Cole Smith): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% UTA |
| P2 5:26 | Interference on the Mammoth (Ian Cole): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P3 9:55 | Slashing on the Mammoth (Kevin Stenlund): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P3 5:55 | Tripping on the Predators (Brady Skjei): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% UTA |
| P3 4:20 | Cross checking on the Predators (Nick Perbix): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% UTA |
When it happened
Mammoth’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 84%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:12 | JJ Peterka scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 21% chance | +13% UTA | – |
| 2 | P1 10:09 | Roman Josi scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 11% chance | +15% NSH | – |
| 3 | P1 1:37 | JJ Peterka missed the net with a snap shot from 6 feetShooting · 35% chance | +6% NSH | – |
| 4 | P2 16:19 | Mikhail Sergachev scored on a slap shot from 59 feetShooting · 2% chance | +19% UTA | – |
| 5 | P2 12:09 | Luke Evangelista scored on a wrist shot from 10 feetShooting · 13% chance | +18% NSH | – |
| 6 | P3 15:58 | Dylan Guenther scored on a backhand shot from 7 feetShooting · 9% chance | +25% UTA | – |
| 7 | P3 8:21 | The game turned hereSteven Stamkos scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 28% chance | +24% NSH | – |
| 8 | P3 6:43 | Steven Stamkos scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 14% chance | +31% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 45% · Mammoth 55%
- Final margin
- Predators by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.3 for the Predators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Mammoth by 0.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 33% · Mammoth 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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