luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 29, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Jets, Dec 29, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Jets 3–1, but the replays lean toward the Jets: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 56 points of win probability to the Oilers.

The biggest swing (P2, 12:00 left): Max Jones scored on a wrist shot from 4 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Oilers.

Final

Edmonton Oilers 3
Winnipeg Jets 1

December 29, 2025 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +69 Oilers very lucky · −69 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 3, Jets win 7.

  1. 1 EDM 5 WPG 2
  2. 2 EDM 6 WPG 4
  3. 3 EDM 6 WPG 5
  4. 4 EDM 4 WPG 5
  5. 5 EDM 3 WPG 4
  6. 6 EDM 1 WPG 3
  7. 7 EDM 2 WPG 5
  8. 8 EDM 2 WPG 5
  9. 9 EDM 1 WPG 5
  10. 10 EDM 1 WPG 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Oilers win 31% of them, Jets 69%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+7.2%
Oilers by 26.0%
Oilers by 117.9%
Jets by 117.5%
Jets by 211.3%
Jets by 3+40.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 goals to the Oilers: the final margin was Oilers by 2, without the luck Jets by 0.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers3422.27−0.27
Jets6314.54−3.54

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:42 Roughing on the Oilers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P1 2:32 Cross checking on the Oilers (Leon Draisaitl): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 11:25 Tripping on the Oilers (Evan Bouchard): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P2 8:47 Tripping on the Jets (Dylan Samberg): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 2:32 Cross checking on the Oilers (Leon Draisaitl): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% WPG –
2 P2 12:00 Max Jones scored on a wrist shot from 4 feetShooting · 13% chance +18% EDM –
3 P2 11:25 Tripping on the Oilers (Evan Bouchard): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% WPG –
4 P2 8:47 Tripping on the Jets (Dylan Samberg): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% EDM –
5 P2 7:11 Jack Roslovic scored on a wrist shot from 23 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% EDM –
6 P3 14:14 Adam Lowry scored on a backhand shot from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% WPG –
7 P3 11:23 Mark Scheifele missed the net with a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 13% chance +4% EDM –
8 P3 3:52 Kyle Connor’s snap shot from 13 feet was savedShooting · 12% chance +5% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 40% · Jets 60%

Final margin
Oilers by 2
Luck in goals
2.6 for the Oilers
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.6
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 31% · Jets 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 13 2025-26 games · Oilers · Jets

More from week 13, 2025-26

Every game of week 13, 2025-26