luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 3, 2026 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Blackhawks at Capitals, Jan 3, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Blackhawks beat the Capitals 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blackhawks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Blackhawks won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Blackhawks.

Final (SO)

Chicago Blackhawks 3
Washington Capitals 2

January 3, 2026 · Capital One Arena

Luck index +55 Blackhawks lucky · −55 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Blackhawks win 4, Capitals win 6.

  1. 1 CHI 5 WSH 2
  2. 2 CHI 2 WSH 0
  3. 3 CHI 2 WSH 1
  4. 4 CHI 3 WSH 2
  5. 5 CHI 3 WSH 4
  6. 6 CHI 2 WSH 3
  7. 7 CHI 2 WSH 4
  8. 8 CHI 2 WSH 5
  9. 9 CHI 1 WSH 4
  10. 10 CHI 1 WSH 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Blackhawks win 45% of them, Capitals 55%. The line is what actually happened: Blackhawks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Blackhawks by 3+14.7%
Blackhawks by 29.6%
Blackhawks by 120.4%
Capitals by 121.0%
Capitals by 211.0%
Capitals by 3+23.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Blackhawks: the final margin was Blackhawks by 1, without the luck Capitals by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Blackhawks4022.61−0.61
Capitals4723.23−1.23

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 16:40 Roughing on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power play +5% CHI
P3 12:33 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Wyatt Kaiser): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
OT 0:54 Slashing on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power play +12% CHI

When it happened

Capitals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Capitals were ahead in it, below while the Blackhawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 18:47 Ryan Donato scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 9% chance +15% CHI –
2 P1 15:14 Dylan Strome scored on a snap shot from 25 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% WSH –
3 P2 15:36 Teuvo Teravainen scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% CHI –
4 P3 11:32 Jakob Chychrun hit the left post with a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 28% chance +9% CHI –
5 P3 10:51 Justin Sourdif’s snap shot from 11 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +8% CHI –
6 P3 8:42 Ryan Leonard scored on a bat shot from 8 feetShooting · 13% chance +30% WSH –
7 SO The game turned hereThe Blackhawks won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% CHI –
8 OT 0:54 Slashing on the Capitals (Jakob Chychrun): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% CHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Blackhawks 40% · Capitals 60%

Final margin
Blackhawks by 1
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Blackhawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Blackhawks 45% · Capitals 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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