luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 2, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Rangers at Panthers, Jan 2, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Rangers beat the Panthers 5–1, but the replays lean toward the Panthers: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Rangers.

The biggest swing (P1, 3:47 left): Artemi Panarin scored on a wrist shot from 60 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Rangers.

Final

New York Rangers 5
Florida Panthers 1

January 2, 2026 · loanDepot park

Luck index +61 Rangers very lucky · −61 Panthers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rangers win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 NYR 5 FLA 2
  2. 2 NYR 4 FLA 2
  3. 3 NYR 5 FLA 4
  4. 4 NYR 2 FLA 1
  5. 5 NYR 2 FLA 3
  6. 6 NYR 3 FLA 4
  7. 7 NYR 2 FLA 4
  8. 8 NYR 2 FLA 5
  9. 9 NYR 0 FLA 3
  10. 10 NYR 0 FLA 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.3 replays ended

Rangers win 39% of them, Panthers 61%. The line is what actually happened: Rangers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rangers by 3+10.6%
Rangers by 27.6%
Rangers by 121.1%
Panthers by 123.2%
Panthers by 211.1%
Panthers by 3+26.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 goals to the Rangers: the final margin was Rangers by 4, without the luck Rangers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Rangers3241.93+2.07
Panthers5713.22−2.22

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 17:20 Hooking on the Rangers (Taylor Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 8:56 Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 5:31 Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Jack Studnicka): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYR
P1 1:08 Illegal check to head on the Panthers (Aaron Ekblad): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYR
P2 17:35 Hooking on the Rangers (Vladislav Gavrikov): 2 minutes on the power play +2% FLA
P3 18:21 Tripping on the Rangers (Jonny Brodzinski): 2 minutes on the power play +1% FLA
P3 11:51 Delaying game on the Rangers (Matthew Robertson): 2 minutes on the power play +2% FLA
P3 8:39 Hooking on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power play +2% NYR
P3 3:22 Interference on the Rangers (Carson Soucy): 2 minutes on the power play 0% FLA

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Rangers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:20 Hooking on the Rangers (Taylor Raddysh): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% FLA –
2 P1 17:12 Sam Reinhart’s snap shot from 15 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +3% NYR –
3 P1 8:56 Delaying game puck over glass on the Rangers (Vincent Trocheck): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% FLA –
4 P1 5:31 Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Jack Studnicka): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% NYR –
5 P1 4:51 Mika Zibanejad scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 19% chance +15% NYR –
6 P1 3:47 Artemi Panarin scored on a wrist shot from 60 feetShooting · 1% chance +15% NYR –
7 P2 19:02 Mika Zibanejad scored on a snap shot from 20 feetShooting · 15% chance +9% NYR –
8 P3 17:40 Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 17 feetShooting · 17% chance +5% FLA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rangers 73% · Panthers 27%

Final margin
Rangers by 4
Luck in goals
2.9 for the Rangers
Luck-adjusted margin
Rangers by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Rangers 39% · Panthers 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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