luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 3, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Bruins at Canucks, Jan 3, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bruins beat the Canucks 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bruins win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Bruins.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Bruins won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Bruins.

Final (OT)

Boston Bruins 3
Vancouver Canucks 2

January 3, 2026 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +59 Bruins lucky · −59 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bruins win 4, Canucks win 6.

  1. 1 BOS 5 VAN 1
  2. 2 BOS 4 VAN 2
  3. 3 BOS 2 VAN 1
  4. 4 BOS 4 VAN 3
  5. 5 BOS 3 VAN 4
  6. 6 BOS 5 VAN 6
  7. 7 BOS 3 VAN 5
  8. 8 BOS 2 VAN 5
  9. 9 BOS 4 VAN 7
  10. 10 BOS 1 VAN 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Bruins win 41% of them, Canucks 59%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bruins by 3+14.2%
Bruins by 27.8%
Bruins by 119.0%
Canucks by 119.9%
Canucks by 210.5%
Canucks by 3+28.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Bruins: the final margin was Bruins by 1, without the luck Canucks by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Bruins3622.76−0.76
Canucks5123.41−1.41

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 5:14 High sticking on the Canucks (Marcus Pettersson): 4 minutes on the power play +8% BOS
P1 2:29 Slashing on the Bruins (Viktor Arvidsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 16:45 Cross checking on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN
P2 13:21 Cross checking on the Canucks (Max Sasson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% BOS
P2 10:15 Delaying game puck over glass on the Bruins (Nikita Zadorov): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 5:06 High sticking on the Bruins (Mark Kastelic): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN
P2 1:24 Holding on the Bruins (Hampus Lindholm): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN
P3 19:39 Holding on the Bruins (Pavel Zacha): 2 minutes on the power play +6% VAN

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Bruins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 5:14 High sticking on the Canucks (Marcus Pettersson): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +8% BOS –
2 P1 3:36 Fraser Minten scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 20% chance +15% BOS –
3 P2 19:12 Elias Pettersson scored on a deflected shot from 16 feetShooting · 9% chance +18% VAN –
4 P2 12:35 Elias Lindholm scored on a tip from 4 feetShooting · 19% chance +17% BOS –
5 P2 4:00 Jake DeBrusk’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 28% chance +7% BOS –
6 P2 1:16 Filip Hronek scored on a deflected shot from 31 feetShooting · 2% chance +25% VAN –
7 P3 19:39 Holding on the Bruins (Pavel Zacha): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +6% VAN –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Bruins won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% BOS –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bruins 39% · Canucks 61%

Final margin
Bruins by 1
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Bruins
Luck-adjusted margin
Canucks by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Bruins 41% · Canucks 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 13 2025-26 games · Bruins · Canucks

More from week 13, 2025-26

Every game of week 13, 2025-26