luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 29, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Canucks at Kraken, Dec 29, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Canucks beat the Kraken 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Kraken: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Canucks.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Canucks won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Canucks.

Final (SO)

Vancouver Canucks 3
Seattle Kraken 2

December 29, 2025 · Climate Pledge Arena

Luck index +67 Canucks very lucky · −67 Kraken

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Canucks win 3, Kraken win 7.

  1. 1 VAN 5 SEA 2
  2. 2 VAN 1 SEA 0
  3. 3 VAN 2 SEA 1
  4. 4 VAN 1 SEA 2
  5. 5 VAN 5 SEA 6
  6. 6 VAN 1 SEA 3
  7. 7 VAN 0 SEA 3
  8. 8 VAN 3 SEA 6
  9. 9 VAN 1 SEA 5
  10. 10 VAN 0 SEA 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Canucks win 33% of them, Kraken 67%. The line is what actually happened: Canucks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Canucks by 3+7.6%
Canucks by 26.8%
Canucks by 118.8%
Kraken by 120.0%
Kraken by 212.4%
Kraken by 3+34.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 goals to the Canucks: the final margin was Canucks by 1, without the luck Kraken by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Canucks4521.85+0.15
Kraken4523.33−1.33

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 16:18 Cross checking on the Canucks (Tyler Myers): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P1 12:19 Slashing on the Kraken (Shane Wright): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P1 12:09 Tripping on the Canucks (Linus Karlsson): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P1 11:14 Too many men on the ice on the Canucks (VAN): 2 minutes on the power play +4% SEA
P2 14:22 Roughing on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +5% SEA
P2 3:59 Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power play +5% VAN
P3 14:33 Slashing on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +7% SEA
OT 1:40 Tripping on the Canucks (Evander Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +12% SEA

When it happened

Kraken’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Kraken were ahead in it, below while the Canucks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 11:10 Jared McCann scored on a slap shot from 37 feetShooting · 11% chance +15% SEA –
2 P1 4:40 Linus Karlsson scored on a snap shot from 18 feetShooting · 18% chance +14% VAN –
3 P1 0:20 Ryan Winterton scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 13% chance +16% SEA –
4 P2 14:37 Elias Pettersson scored on a wrist shot from 31 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% VAN –
5 P2 3:59 Tripping on the Kraken (Eeli Tolvanen): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% VAN –
6 P3 14:33 Slashing on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% SEA –
7 SO The game turned hereThe Canucks won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% VAN –
8 OT 1:40 Tripping on the Canucks (Evander Kane): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% SEA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Canucks 25% · Kraken 75%

Final margin
Canucks by 1
Luck in goals
2.1 for the Canucks
Luck-adjusted margin
Kraken by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Canucks 33% · Kraken 67% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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