luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 30, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Canucks, Dec 30, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Flyers beat the Canucks 6–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flyers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Flyers.

The biggest swing (P2, 16:20 left): Carl Grundstrom scored on a wrist shot from 13 feet, worth 18 points of win probability to the Flyers.

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 6
Vancouver Canucks 3

December 30, 2025 · Rogers Arena

Luck index +51 Flyers lucky · −51 Canucks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 5, Canucks win 5.

  1. 1 PHI 6 VAN 2
  2. 2 PHI 4 VAN 1
  3. 3 PHI 4 VAN 2
  4. 4 PHI 3 VAN 2
  5. 5 PHI 3 VAN 2
  6. 6 PHI 2 VAN 3
  7. 7 PHI 2 VAN 3
  8. 8 PHI 1 VAN 3
  9. 9 PHI 2 VAN 5
  10. 10 PHI 1 VAN 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Flyers win 49% of them, Canucks 51%. The line is what actually happened: Flyers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+18.7%
Flyers by 29.7%
Flyers by 120.2%
Canucks by 121.8%
Canucks by 210.9%
Canucks by 3+18.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 goals to the Flyers: the final margin was Flyers by 3, without the luck Flyers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers4642.62+1.38
Canucks5632.91+0.09

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 15:46 Slashing on the Flyers (Bobby Brink): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VAN
P2 12:41 Tripping on the Flyers (Travis Sanheim): 2 minutes on the power play +4% VAN
P2 1:59 High sticking on the Canucks (Marcus Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P2 1:31 Interference on the Flyers (Jamie Drysdale): 2 minutes on the power play +3% VAN
P3 4:28 Holding on the Flyers (Carl Grundstrom): 2 minutes on the power play +1% VAN

When it happened

Canucks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Canucks were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:15 David Kampf scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 15% chance +13% VAN –
2 P1 15:46 Slashing on the Flyers (Bobby Brink): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +3% VAN –
3 P1 7:58 Noah Cates scored on a wrist shot from 37 feetShooting · 3% chance +16% PHI –
4 P2 16:20 Carl Grundstrom scored on a wrist shot from 13 feetShooting · 7% chance +18% PHI –
5 P2 12:41 Tripping on the Flyers (Travis Sanheim): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% VAN –
6 P2 3:40 Travis Konecny scored on a wrist shot from 8 feetShooting · 17% chance +14% PHI –
7 P3 18:52 Drew O'Connor scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% VAN –
8 P3 18:26 Bobby Brink scored on a deflected shot from 5 feetShooting · 16% chance +14% PHI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 73% · Canucks 27%

Final margin
Flyers by 3
Luck in goals
1.9 for the Flyers
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 49% · Canucks 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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