2025-26 regular season · January 1, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators at Kraken, Jan 1, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Kraken beat the Predators 4–1, but the replays lean toward the Predators: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 21 points of win probability to the Kraken.
The biggest swing (P1, 16:12 left): Matty Beniers scored on a tip from 10 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Kraken.
Final
 Nashville Predators | 1 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Kraken | 4 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +61 Kraken very lucky · −61 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 6, Kraken win 4.
- 1 NSH 5 SEA 1
- 2 NSH 5 SEA 2
- 3 NSH 5 SEA 2
- 4 NSH 4 SEA 2
- 5 NSH 7 SEA 6
- 6 NSH 4 SEA 3
- 7 NSH 2 SEA 3
- 8 NSH 3 SEA 4
- 9 NSH 2 SEA 4
- 10 NSH 2 SEA 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Predators win 61% of them, Kraken 39%. The line is what actually happened: Kraken by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 27.9% |
| Predators by 2 | 12.5% |
| Predators by 1 | 20.9% |
| Kraken by 1 | 20.7% |
| Kraken by 2 | 7.7% |
| Kraken by 3+ | 10.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 43 | 1 | 3.13 | −2.13 |
 Kraken | 33 | 3 | 2.03 | +0.97 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:40 | Slashing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 8:51 | Roughing on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% SEA |
| P2 3:12 | High sticking on the Kraken (Adam Larsson): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% NSH |
When it happened
Kraken’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:40 | Slashing on the Kraken (Vince Dunn): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% NSH | – |
| 2 | P1 16:12 | Matty Beniers scored on a tip from 10 feetShooting · 7% chance | +15% SEA | – |
| 3 | P1 9:26 | Ryan Winterton’s bat shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +2% NSH | – |
| 4 | P1 9:19 | Jamie Oleksiak scored on a wrist shot from 42 feetShooting · 3% chance | +13% SEA | – |
| 5 | P1 9:09 | Matty Beniers scored on a poke shot from 7 feetShooting · 11% chance | +8% SEA | – |
| 6 | P2 2:26 | Roman Josi scored on a wrist shot from 32 feetShooting · 10% chance | +6% NSH | – |
| 7 | P3 17:09 | Michael McCarron’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +2% SEA | – |
| 8 | P3 17:08 | Michael McCarron’s deflected shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +2% SEA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 31% · Kraken 69%
- Final margin
- Kraken by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.1 for the Kraken
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kraken by 0.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 61% · Kraken 39% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 13, 2025-26
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