luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 31, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Jets at Red Wings, Dec 31, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Red Wings beat the Jets 2–1, but the replays lean toward the Jets: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 28 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

The biggest swing (P1, 11:38 left): Dylan Larkin scored on a snap shot from 45 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Red Wings.

Final

Winnipeg Jets 1
Detroit Red Wings 2

December 31, 2025 · Little Caesars Arena

Luck index +65 Red Wings very lucky · −65 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 7, Red Wings win 3.

  1. 1 WPG 5 DET 1
  2. 2 WPG 4 DET 1
  3. 3 WPG 3 DET 0
  4. 4 WPG 3 DET 1
  5. 5 WPG 2 DET 1
  6. 6 WPG 2 DET 1
  7. 7 WPG 2 DET 1
  8. 8 WPG 0 DET 1
  9. 9 WPG 2 DET 3
  10. 10 WPG 1 DET 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Jets win 65% of them, Red Wings 35%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 3+25.8%
Jets by 214.5%
Jets by 125.0%
Red Wings by 123.7%
Red Wings by 25.6%
Red Wings by 3+5.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 goals to the Red Wings: the final margin was Red Wings by 1, without the luck Jets by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Jets3512.52−1.52
Red Wings2321.09+0.91

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 12:48 Roughing on the Jets (Josh Morrissey): 2 minutes on the power play +4% DET
P2 18:56 Cross checking on the Jets (Vladislav Namestnikov): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DET
P2 15:47 Hooking on the Red Wings (Patrick Kane): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WPG
P2 7:40 Hooking on the Jets (Cole Perfetti): 2 minutes on the power play +3% DET
P2 7:20 Slashing on the Red Wings (Dylan Larkin): 2 minutes on the power play +3% WPG
P3 11:36 Holding on the Red Wings (Dylan Larkin): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WPG

When it happened

Red Wings’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Red Wings were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:05 Morgan Barron’s wrist shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 25% chance +4% DET –
2 P1 12:48 Roughing on the Jets (Josh Morrissey): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% DET –
3 P1 11:38 Dylan Larkin scored on a snap shot from 45 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% DET –
4 P1 5:12 Mason Appleton scored on a snap shot from 10 feetShooting · 10% chance +12% DET –
5 P3 12:56 Logan Stanley scored on a wrist shot from 29 feetShooting · 3% chance +13% WPG –
6 P3 11:36 Holding on the Red Wings (Dylan Larkin): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% WPG –
7 P3 4:19 Dylan DeMelo’s wrist shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance +4% DET –
8 P3 1:38 Gustav Nyquist hit the left post with a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 16% chance +7% DET –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 77% · Red Wings 23%

Final margin
Red Wings by 1
Luck in goals
1.8 for the Red Wings
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Jets 65% · Red Wings 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

All week 13 2025-26 games · Jets · Red Wings

More from week 13, 2025-26

Every game of week 13, 2025-26