luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 30, 2025 · SO

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Islanders at Blackhawks, Dec 30, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Islanders beat the Blackhawks 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Islanders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shootout alone was worth 50 points of win probability to the Islanders.

The game turned on a luck play (SO): the Islanders won the shootout, worth 50 points of win probability to the Islanders.

Final (SO)

New York Islanders 3
Chicago Blackhawks 2

December 30, 2025 · United Center

Luck index +52 Islanders lucky · −52 Blackhawks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Islanders win 5, Blackhawks win 5.

  1. 1 NYI 4 CHI 1
  2. 2 NYI 3 CHI 1
  3. 3 NYI 5 CHI 3
  4. 4 NYI 3 CHI 2
  5. 5 NYI 2 CHI 1
  6. 6 NYI 2 CHI 3
  7. 7 NYI 2 CHI 3
  8. 8 NYI 1 CHI 3
  9. 9 NYI 2 CHI 5
  10. 10 NYI 0 CHI 3

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.9 replays ended

Islanders win 48% of them, Blackhawks 52%. The line is what actually happened: Islanders by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Islanders by 3+12.4%
Islanders by 210.3%
Islanders by 124.9%
Blackhawks by 127.1%
Blackhawks by 210.7%
Blackhawks by 3+14.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 goals to the Islanders: the final margin was Islanders by 1, without the luck Blackhawks by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Islanders3221.72+0.28
Blackhawks3821.89+0.11

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 8:28 Holding on the Blackhawks (Andre Burakovsky): 2 minutes on the power play +4% NYI
P2 16:52 Roughing on the Blackhawks (Nick Foligno): 2 minutes on the power play +3% NYI
P2 3:11 High sticking double minor on the Islanders (Bo Horvat): 4 minutes on the power play +9% CHI
OT 2:17 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Artyom Levshunov): 2 minutes on the power play +12% NYI

When it happened

Blackhawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blackhawks were ahead in it, below while the Islanders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 17:04 Calum Ritchie scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 10% chance +15% NYI –
2 P1 7:52 Bo Horvat scored on a snap shot from 35 feetShooting · 9% chance +14% NYI –
3 P2 4:29 Teuvo Teravainen scored on a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 15% chance +14% CHI –
4 P2 3:11 High sticking double minor on the Islanders (Bo Horvat): 4 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +9% CHI –
5 P2 0:03 Nick Lardis scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 13% chance +22% CHI –
6 P3 0:06 Nick Foligno hit the right post with a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 15% chance +7% NYI –
7 SO The game turned hereThe Islanders won the shootoutShootout · shootouts are close to coin flips +49% NYI –
8 OT 2:17 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Artyom Levshunov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +12% NYI –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Islanders 48% · Blackhawks 52%

Final margin
Islanders by 1
Luck in goals
1.1 for the Islanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Blackhawks by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Islanders 48% · Blackhawks 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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