luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 29, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Panthers, Dec 29, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Capitals 5–3, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 18 points of win probability to the Panthers.

The biggest swing (P3, 6:48 left): Aaron Ekblad scored on a slap shot from 28 feet, worth 32 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Washington Capitals 3
Florida Panthers 5

December 29, 2025 · Amerant Bank Arena

Luck index +46 Panthers lucky · −46 Capitals

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 5, Panthers win 5.

  1. 1 WSH 6 FLA 2
  2. 2 WSH 5 FLA 2
  3. 3 WSH 5 FLA 3
  4. 4 WSH 5 FLA 4
  5. 5 WSH 4 FLA 3
  6. 6 WSH 4 FLA 5
  7. 7 WSH 2 FLA 3
  8. 8 WSH 4 FLA 6
  9. 9 WSH 3 FLA 6
  10. 10 WSH 3 FLA 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 3,999.8 replays ended

Capitals win 46% of them, Panthers 54%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+18.6%
Capitals by 29.1%
Capitals by 118.0%
Panthers by 119.8%
Panthers by 210.1%
Panthers by 3+24.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 goals to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 2, without the luck Panthers by 0.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals4333.45−0.45
Panthers4743.53+0.47

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:27 Holding on the Capitals (Anthony Beauvillier): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 8:16 Slashing on the Capitals (Ethen Frank): 2 minutes on the power play +4% FLA
P1 3:06 Slashing on the Panthers (A.J. Greer): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WSH
P1 1:56 High sticking double minor on the Panthers (Seth Jones): 4 minutes on the power play +7% WSH
P2 15:40 Tripping on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play +5% WSH
P2 8:12 Tripping on the Capitals (Ryan Leonard): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P2 6:10 Tripping on the Capitals (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P3 15:45 Interference on the Capitals (Alex Ovechkin): 2 minutes on the power play +5% FLA
P3 13:05 Interference on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play +7% WSH
P3 12:41 Holding on the Capitals (Ryan Leonard): 2 minutes on the power play +7% FLA
P3 2:48 Slashing on the Panthers (Eetu Luostarinen): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WSH

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 16:07 Tom Wilson scored on a snap shot from 24 feetShooting · 12% chance +14% WSH –
2 P1 15:25 Anton Lundell scored on a tip from 7 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% FLA –
3 P1 7:15 Sam Reinhart scored on a wrist shot from 34 feetShooting · 5% chance +16% FLA –
4 P1 0:43 Tom Wilson scored on a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 21% chance +14% WSH –
5 P3 16:49 Dylan Strome scored on a wrist shot from 56 feetShooting · 2% chance +27% WSH –
6 P3 13:44 Brad Marchand scored on a bat shot from 5 feetShooting · 18% chance +24% FLA –
7 P3 6:48 Aaron Ekblad scored on a slap shot from 28 feetShooting · 10% chance +32% FLA –
8 P3 1:01 Ryan Leonard missed the net with a snap shot from 21 feetShooting · 20% chance +9% FLA –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 38% · Panthers 62%

Final margin
Panthers by 2
Luck in goals
1.3 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.7
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 46% · Panthers 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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