2025-26 regular season · December 29, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Blue Jackets at Senators, Dec 29, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Blue Jackets beat the Senators 4–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Blue Jackets win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 20 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
The biggest swing (P3, 18:03 left): Denton Mateychuk scored on a snap shot from 51 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Blue Jackets.
Final
 Columbus Blue Jackets | 4 |
|---|---|
 Ottawa Senators | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Blue Jackets lucky · −41 Senators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Blue Jackets win 6, Senators win 4.
- 1 CBJ 6 OTT 2
- 2 CBJ 3 OTT 0
- 3 CBJ 2 OTT 0
- 4 CBJ 2 OTT 1
- 5 CBJ 2 OTT 1
- 6 CBJ 5 OTT 4
- 7 CBJ 1 OTT 2
- 8 CBJ 1 OTT 2
- 9 CBJ 2 OTT 3
- 10 CBJ 1 OTT 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Blue Jackets win 59% of them, Senators 41%. The line is what actually happened: Blue Jackets by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Blue Jackets by 3+ | 22.2% |
| Blue Jackets by 2 | 13.0% |
| Blue Jackets by 1 | 23.6% |
| Senators by 1 | 24.3% |
| Senators by 2 | 8.9% |
| Senators by 3+ | 7.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blue Jackets | 34 | 4 | 2.19 | +1.81 |
 Senators | 41 | 1 | 1.88 | −0.88 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:57 | Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Cole Sillinger): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 6:34 | Roughing on the Senators (Fabian Zetterlund): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CBJ |
| P1 2:08 | Tripping on the Senators (Dylan Cozens): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CBJ |
| P2 16:36 | Holding on the Blue Jackets (Dante Fabbro): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% OTT |
| P2 9:13 | Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Damon Severson): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 7:04 | Tripping on the Senators (David Perron): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% CBJ |
| P2 5:33 | Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Mason Marchment): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
When it happened
Senators’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 6:34 | Roughing on the Senators (Fabian Zetterlund): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% CBJ | – |
| 2 | P1 4:02 | Boone Jenner scored on a tip from 3 feetShooting · 14% chance | +16% CBJ | – |
| 3 | P2 18:39 | Damon Severson scored on a slap shot from 50 feetShooting · 3% chance | +15% CBJ | – |
| 4 | P2 11:44 | Jake Sanderson scored on a wrist shot from 33 feetShooting · 4% chance | +16% OTT | – |
| 5 | P2 9:13 | Tripping on the Blue Jackets (Damon Severson): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% OTT | – |
| 6 | P2 7:04 | Tripping on the Senators (David Perron): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% CBJ | – |
| 7 | P2 5:33 | Hooking on the Blue Jackets (Mason Marchment): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% OTT | – |
| 8 | P3 18:03 | Denton Mateychuk scored on a snap shot from 51 feetShooting · 3% chance | +16% CBJ | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Blue Jackets 87% · Senators 13%
- Final margin
- Blue Jackets by 3
- Luck in goals
- 1.0 for the Blue Jackets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Blue Jackets by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Blue Jackets 59% · Senators 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 13, 2025-26
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- Devils at Blue Jackets Dec 31, 2025 · NJD 3–2 · replay 31% for the winner
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- Sabres at Blue Jackets Jan 3, 2026 · CBJ 5–1 · replay 37% for the winner
- Rangers at Panthers Jan 2, 2026 · NYR 5–1 · replay 39% for the winner
- Bruins at Canucks Jan 3, 2026 · BOS 3–2 OT · replay 41% for the winner
- Red Wings at Penguins Jan 1, 2026 · PIT 4–3 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Canadiens at Blues Jan 3, 2026 · STL 2–0 · replay 45% for the winner
- Blackhawks at Capitals Jan 3, 2026 · CHI 3–2 SO · replay 45% for the winner
- Avalanche at Panthers Jan 4, 2026 · FLA 2–1 · replay 45% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Islanders Jan 3, 2026 · NYI 4–3 OT · replay 45% for the winner
- Canadiens at Hurricanes Jan 1, 2026 · MTL 7–5 · replay 45% for the winner