luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · December 31, 2025

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Flyers at Flames, Dec 31, 2025: who deserved to win?

The Flames beat the Flyers 5–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Flames win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Flames.

The biggest swing (P1, 6:30 left): Mikael Backlund scored on a slap shot from 46 feet, worth 17 points of win probability to the Flames.

Final

Philadelphia Flyers 1
Calgary Flames 5

December 31, 2025 · Scotiabank Saddledome

Luck index +45 Flames lucky · −45 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Flyers win 4, Flames win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 4 CGY 1
  2. 2 PHI 4 CGY 2
  3. 3 PHI 3 CGY 2
  4. 4 PHI 4 CGY 3
  5. 5 PHI 2 CGY 3
  6. 6 PHI 2 CGY 3
  7. 7 PHI 1 CGY 3
  8. 8 PHI 1 CGY 4
  9. 9 PHI 1 CGY 4
  10. 10 PHI 4 CGY 8

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Flyers win 45% of them, Flames 55%. The line is what actually happened: Flames by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Flyers by 3+15.8%
Flyers by 28.8%
Flyers by 119.9%
Flames by 120.8%
Flames by 211.2%
Flames by 3+23.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 goals to the Flames: the final margin was Flames by 4, without the luck Flames by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Flyers4212.61−1.61
Flames4552.88+2.12

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P2 15:48 Tripping on the Flames (Yan Kuznetsov): 2 minutes on the power play +3% PHI
P2 9:39 Tripping on the Flyers (Cam York): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 9:35 High sticking on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CGY
P2 3:47 Delaying game puck over glass on the Flyers (Jamie Drysdale): 2 minutes on the power play +3% CGY
P3 2:36 Interference on the Flames (MacKenzie Weegar): 2 minutes on the power play 0% PHI

When it happened

Flames’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flames were ahead in it, below while the Flyers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 6:30 Mikael Backlund scored on a slap shot from 46 feetShooting · 4% chance +17% CGY –
2 P2 16:52 Jonathan Huberdeau scored on a slap shot from 54 feetShooting · 3% chance +14% CGY –
3 P2 12:57 Owen Tippett’s snap shot from 16 feet was savedShooting · 20% chance +3% CGY –
4 P2 11:11 Travis Konecny scored on a shot from 42 feetShooting · 4% chance +14% PHI –
5 P2 9:39 Tripping on the Flyers (Cam York): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CGY –
6 P2 9:35 High sticking on the Flyers (Christian Dvorak): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% CGY –
7 P2 7:57 Rasmus Andersson scored on a slap shot from 47 feetShooting · 5% chance +14% CGY –
8 P2 2:08 Yegor Sharangovich scored on a snap shot from 23 feetShooting · 21% chance +5% CGY –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Flyers 26% · Flames 74%

Final margin
Flames by 4
Luck in goals
2.8 for the Flames
Luck-adjusted margin
Flames by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Flyers 45% · Flames 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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