2025-26 regular season · December 30, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Hurricanes at Penguins, Dec 30, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Penguins beat the Hurricanes 5–1, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 16:14 left): Sidney Crosby scored on a snap shot from 14 feet, worth 13 points of win probability to the Penguins.
Final
 Carolina Hurricanes | 1 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +39 Penguins lucky · −39 Hurricanes
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Hurricanes win 4, Penguins win 6.
- 1 CAR 3 PIT 0
- 2 CAR 2 PIT 0
- 3 CAR 2 PIT 1
- 4 CAR 5 PIT 4
- 5 CAR 2 PIT 3
- 6 CAR 2 PIT 3
- 7 CAR 0 PIT 2
- 8 CAR 0 PIT 3
- 9 CAR 1 PIT 4
- 10 CAR 0 PIT 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Hurricanes win 39% of them, Penguins 61%. The line is what actually happened: Penguins by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 9.5% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 7.6% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 21.6% |
| Penguins by 1 | 23.6% |
| Penguins by 2 | 11.6% |
| Penguins by 3+ | 26.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hurricanes | 42 | 1 | 2.16 | −1.16 |
 Penguins | 45 | 5 | 2.69 | +2.31 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 3:20 | Interference on the Hurricanes (K'Andre Miller): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% PIT |
| P1 2:36 | Hooking on the Hurricanes (Jackson Blake): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% PIT |
When it happened
Penguins’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 19:29 | Eric Robinson’s wrist shot from 20 feet was savedShooting · 11% chance | +2% PIT | – |
| 2 | P1 16:14 | Sidney Crosby scored on a snap shot from 14 feetShooting · 14% chance | +13% PIT | – |
| 3 | P1 10:23 | Justin Brazeau’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 16% chance | +2% CAR | – |
| 4 | P1 8:48 | Andrei Svechnikov’s wrist shot from 9 feet was savedShooting · 10% chance | +2% PIT | – |
| 5 | P1 3:53 | Justin Brazeau scored on a backhand shot from 14 feetShooting · 9% chance | +12% PIT | – |
| 6 | P1 3:20 | Interference on the Hurricanes (K'Andre Miller): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +3% PIT | – |
| 7 | P1 2:48 | Anthony Mantha scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 23% chance | +7% PIT | – |
| 8 | P2 4:52 | Tommy Novak scored on a wrist shot from 54 feetShooting · 2% chance | +2% PIT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Hurricanes 23% · Penguins 77%
- Final margin
- Penguins by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.6 for the Penguins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penguins by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Hurricanes 39% · Penguins 61% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 13, 2025-26
- Devils at Blue Jackets Dec 31, 2025 · NJD 3–2 · replay 31% for the winner
- Sabres at Blue Jackets Jan 3, 2026 · CBJ 5–1 · replay 37% for the winner
- Rangers at Panthers Jan 2, 2026 · NYR 5–1 · replay 39% for the winner
- Red Wings at Penguins Jan 1, 2026 · PIT 4–3 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Blackhawks at Capitals Jan 3, 2026 · CHI 3–2 SO · replay 45% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Islanders Jan 3, 2026 · NYI 4–3 OT · replay 45% for the winner
- Canadiens at Hurricanes Jan 1, 2026 · MTL 7–5 · replay 45% for the winner
- Islanders at Blackhawks Dec 30, 2025 · NYI 3–2 SO · replay 48% for the winner
- Flyers at Canucks Dec 30, 2025 · PHI 6–3 · replay 49% for the winner
- Mammoth at Devils Jan 3, 2026 · NJD 4–1 · replay 49% for the winner
- Hurricanes at Devils Jan 4, 2026 · CAR 3–1 · replay 51% for the winner
- Rangers at Capitals Dec 31, 2025 · WSH 6–3 · replay 51% for the winner