Islanders lucky 4 
Wild unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 30% of replays 2025-26 NHL season · Jan 5, 2026 – Jan 11, 2026
NHL week 14: who deserved to win
11 of 54 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest steal: the Islanders beat the Wild 4–3 (OT) in a game they win 30% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.
Our weeks run Monday to Sunday; week 1 is the week of opening night. 54 games.
Every game, luck first
The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.
Islanders lucky 4 Wild unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 30% of replays 
Canucks unlucky 3 
Sabres lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Sabres win 31% of replays 
Red Wings lucky 5 
Senators unlucky 3 Replays favor loser · Red Wings win 31% of replays 
Devils unlucky 0 Islanders lucky 9 Replays favor loser · Islanders win 34% of replays 
Blackhawks lucky 3 
Predators unlucky 0 Replays favor loser · Blackhawks win 35% of replays 
Panthers lucky 3 Senators unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Panthers win 35% of replays Wild lucky 3 
Kraken unlucky 2 Replays favor loser · Wild win 36% of replays 
Flames lucky 2 
Penguins unlucky 1 Replays favor loser · Flames win 36% of replays Panthers unlucky 2 
Canadiens lucky 6 Replays favor loser · Canadiens win 39% of replays 
Bruins unlucky 4 Kraken lucky 7 Replays favor loser · Kraken win 39% of replays 
Kings unlucky 1 
Jets lucky 5 Replays favor loser · Jets win 40% of replays 
Maple Leafs 2 
Flyers 1 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 43% of replays 
Capitals 5 Blackhawks 1 Coin flip · Capitals win 44% of replays Canucks 0 Maple Leafs 5 Coin flip · Maple Leafs win 45% of replays Kraken 5 Flames 1 Coin flip · Kraken win 45% of replays 
Ducks 4 Capitals 7 Coin flip · Capitals win 46% of replays Capitals 2 Predators 3 Coin flip · Predators win 47% of replays Penguins 0 Bruins 1 Coin flip · Bruins win 48% of replays 
Blues 2 
Mammoth 4 Coin flip · Mammoth win 48% of replays Mammoth 3 
Rangers 2 Coin flip · Mammoth win 49% of replays 
Blue Jackets 0 
Avalanche 4 Coin flip · Avalanche win 49% of replays Senators 1 Mammoth 3 Coin flip · Mammoth win 52% of replays Islanders 1 Predators 2 Coin flip · Predators win 52% of replays Wild 2 Kings 4 Coin flip · Kings win 52% of replays Blue Jackets 2 
Sharks 5 Coin flip · Sharks win 53% of replays Blue Jackets 3 
Golden Knights 5 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 53% of replays 
Stars 4 Sharks 5 Coin flip · Sharks win 54% of replays Avalanche 2 
Lightning 4 Coin flip · Lightning win 54% of replays Kings 4 
Oilers 3 Coin flip · Kings win 54% of replays Flames 1 Bruins 4 Coin flip · Bruins win 56% of replays Blues 2 Golden Knights 4 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 56% of replays Blues 3 Blackhawks 7 Coin flip · Blackhawks win 57% of replays Sabres 5 Rangers 2 Coin flip · Sabres win 58% of replays Ducks 3 Sabres 5 Coin flip · Sabres win 58% of replays Red Wings 4 Canadiens 0 Coin flip · Red Wings win 59% of replays Canucks 1 Red Wings 5 Coin flip · Red Wings win 59% of replays Golden Knights 4 Jets 3 Coin flip · Golden Knights win 60% of replays Panthers 1 Maple Leafs 4 Replays agree · Maple Leafs win 60% of replays Devils 3 Jets 4 Replays agree · Jets win 60% of replays Ducks 2 
Hurricanes 5 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 62% of replays Devils 1 Penguins 4 Replays agree · Penguins win 62% of replays Oilers 4 Jets 3 Replays agree · Oilers win 63% of replays Stars 3 Hurricanes 6 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 63% of replays Sharks 4 Kings 3 Replays agree · Sharks win 63% of replays Rangers 2 Bruins 10 Replays agree · Bruins win 63% of replays Lightning 7 Flyers 2 Replays agree · Lightning win 64% of replays Golden Knights 7 Sharks 2 Replays agree · Golden Knights win 67% of replays Senators 2 Avalanche 8 Replays agree · Avalanche win 67% of replays Kraken 2 Hurricanes 3 Replays agree · Hurricanes win 70% of replays Blue Jackets 3 Mammoth 2 Replays agree · Blue Jackets win 73% of replays Flames 1 Canadiens 4 Replays agree · Canadiens win 73% of replays Stars 4 Capitals 1 Replays agree · Stars win 75% of replays Ducks 2 Flyers 5 Replays agree · Flyers win 77% of replays Predators 2 Oilers 6 Replays agree · Oilers win 85% of replays Week 14 luck ranking
Every team’s luck index in each game: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 7 times in 10 scores −70.
| # | Team | Game | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islanders | W 4–3 OT @ Wild Jan 10, 2026 | 30% | +70 |
| 2 | Sabres | W 5–3 vs Canucks Jan 6, 2026 | 31% | +69 |
| 3 | Red Wings | W 5–3 @ Senators Jan 5, 2026 | 31% | +69 |
| 4 | Islanders | W 9–0 vs Devils Jan 6, 2026 | 34% | +66 |
| 5 | Blackhawks | W 3–0 @ Predators Jan 10, 2026 | 35% | +65 |
| 6 | Panthers | W 3–2 @ Senators Jan 10, 2026 | 35% | +65 |
| 7 | Wild | W 3–2 OT @ Kraken Jan 8, 2026 | 36% | +64 |
| 8 | Flames | W 2–1 @ Penguins Jan 10, 2026 | 36% | +64 |
| 9 | Canadiens | W 6–2 vs Panthers Jan 8, 2026 | 39% | +61 |
| 10 | Kraken | W 7–4 vs Bruins Jan 6, 2026 | 39% | +61 |
| 11 | Jets | W 5–1 vs Kings Jan 9, 2026 | 40% | +60 |
| 12 | Maple Leafs | W 2–1 OT @ Flyers Jan 8, 2026 | 43% | +57 |
| 13 | Capitals | W 5–1 @ Blackhawks Jan 9, 2026 | 44% | +56 |
| 14 | Maple Leafs | W 5–0 vs Canucks Jan 10, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 15 | Kraken | W 5–1 @ Flames Jan 5, 2026 | 45% | +55 |
| 16 | Capitals | W 7–4 vs Ducks Jan 5, 2026 | 46% | +54 |
| 17 | Predators | W 3–2 vs Capitals Jan 11, 2026 | 47% | +53 |
| 18 | Bruins | W 1–0 vs Penguins Jan 11, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 19 | Mammoth | W 4–2 vs Blues Jan 9, 2026 | 48% | +52 |
| 20 | Mammoth | W 3–2 OT @ Rangers Jan 5, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 21 | Avalanche | W 4–0 vs Blue Jackets Jan 10, 2026 | 49% | +51 |
| 22 | Mammoth | W 3–1 vs Senators Jan 7, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 23 | Predators | W 2–1 SO vs Islanders Jan 8, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 24 | Kings | W 4–2 vs Wild Jan 5, 2026 | 52% | +48 |
| 25 | Sharks | W 5–2 vs Blue Jackets Jan 6, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 26 | Golden Knights | W 5–3 vs Blue Jackets Jan 8, 2026 | 53% | +47 |
| 27 | Sharks | W 5–4 OT vs Stars Jan 10, 2026 | 54% | +47 |
| 28 | Lightning | W 4–2 vs Avalanche Jan 6, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 29 | Kings | W 4–3 SO @ Oilers Jan 10, 2026 | 54% | +46 |
| 30 | Bruins | W 4–1 vs Flames Jan 8, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 31 | Golden Knights | W 4–2 vs Blues Jan 10, 2026 | 56% | +44 |
| 32 | Blackhawks | W 7–3 vs Blues Jan 7, 2026 | 57% | +43 |
| 33 | Sabres | W 5–2 @ Rangers Jan 8, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 34 | Sabres | W 5–3 vs Ducks Jan 10, 2026 | 58% | +42 |
| 35 | Red Wings | W 4–0 @ Canadiens Jan 10, 2026 | 59% | +41 |
| 36 | Red Wings | W 5–1 vs Canucks Jan 8, 2026 | 59% | +41 |
| 37 | Golden Knights | W 4–3 OT @ Jets Jan 6, 2026 | 60% | +40 |
| 38 | Maple Leafs | W 4–1 vs Panthers Jan 6, 2026 | 60% | +40 |
| 39 | Jets | W 4–3 vs Devils Jan 11, 2026 | 60% | +40 |
| 40 | Hurricanes | W 5–2 vs Ducks Jan 8, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 41 | Penguins | W 4–1 vs Devils Jan 8, 2026 | 62% | +38 |
| 42 | Oilers | W 4–3 @ Jets Jan 8, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 43 | Hurricanes | W 6–3 vs Stars Jan 6, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 44 | Sharks | W 4–3 OT @ Kings Jan 7, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 45 | Bruins | W 10–2 vs Rangers Jan 10, 2026 | 63% | +37 |
| 46 | Lightning | W 7–2 @ Flyers Jan 10, 2026 | 64% | +36 |
| 47 | Golden Knights | W 7–2 @ Sharks Jan 11, 2026 | 67% | +33 |
| 48 | Avalanche | W 8–2 vs Senators Jan 8, 2026 | 67% | +33 |
| 49 | Hurricanes | W 3–2 vs Kraken Jan 10, 2026 | 70% | +30 |
| 50 | Blue Jackets | W 3–2 OT @ Mammoth Jan 11, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 51 | Canadiens | W 4–1 vs Flames Jan 7, 2026 | 73% | +27 |
| 52 | Stars | W 4–1 @ Capitals Jan 7, 2026 | 75% | +25 |
| 53 | Flyers | W 5–2 vs Ducks Jan 6, 2026 | 77% | +23 |
| 54 | Oilers | W 6–2 vs Predators Jan 6, 2026 | 85% | +15 |
| 55 | Predators | L 2–6 @ Oilers Jan 6, 2026 | 15% | −15 |
| 56 | Ducks | L 2–5 @ Flyers Jan 6, 2026 | 23% | −23 |
| 57 | Capitals | L 1–4 vs Stars Jan 7, 2026 | 25% | −25 |
| 58 | Flames | L 1–4 @ Canadiens Jan 7, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 59 | Mammoth | L 2–3 OT vs Blue Jackets Jan 11, 2026 | 27% | −27 |
| 60 | Kraken | L 2–3 @ Hurricanes Jan 10, 2026 | 30% | −30 |
| 61 | Senators | L 2–8 @ Avalanche Jan 8, 2026 | 33% | −33 |
| 62 | Sharks | L 2–7 vs Golden Knights Jan 11, 2026 | 33% | −33 |
| 63 | Flyers | L 2–7 vs Lightning Jan 10, 2026 | 36% | −36 |
| 64 | Rangers | L 2–10 @ Bruins Jan 10, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 65 | Kings | L 3–4 OT vs Sharks Jan 7, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 66 | Stars | L 3–6 @ Hurricanes Jan 6, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 67 | Jets | L 3–4 vs Oilers Jan 8, 2026 | 37% | −37 |
| 68 | Devils | L 1–4 @ Penguins Jan 8, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 69 | Ducks | L 2–5 @ Hurricanes Jan 8, 2026 | 38% | −38 |
| 70 | Devils | L 3–4 @ Jets Jan 11, 2026 | 40% | −40 |
| 71 | Panthers | L 1–4 @ Maple Leafs Jan 6, 2026 | 40% | −40 |
| 72 | Jets | L 3–4 OT vs Golden Knights Jan 6, 2026 | 40% | −40 |
| 73 | Canucks | L 1–5 @ Red Wings Jan 8, 2026 | 41% | −41 |
| 74 | Canadiens | L 0–4 vs Red Wings Jan 10, 2026 | 41% | −41 |
| 75 | Ducks | L 3–5 @ Sabres Jan 10, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 76 | Rangers | L 2–5 vs Sabres Jan 8, 2026 | 42% | −42 |
| 77 | Blues | L 3–7 @ Blackhawks Jan 7, 2026 | 43% | −43 |
| 78 | Blues | L 2–4 @ Golden Knights Jan 10, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 79 | Flames | L 1–4 @ Bruins Jan 8, 2026 | 44% | −44 |
| 80 | Oilers | L 3–4 SO vs Kings Jan 10, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 81 | Avalanche | L 2–4 @ Lightning Jan 6, 2026 | 46% | −46 |
| 82 | Stars | L 4–5 OT @ Sharks Jan 10, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 83 | Blue Jackets | L 3–5 @ Golden Knights Jan 8, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 84 | Blue Jackets | L 2–5 @ Sharks Jan 6, 2026 | 47% | −47 |
| 85 | Wild | L 2–4 @ Kings Jan 5, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 86 | Islanders | L 1–2 SO @ Predators Jan 8, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 87 | Senators | L 1–3 @ Mammoth Jan 7, 2026 | 48% | −48 |
| 88 | Blue Jackets | L 0–4 @ Avalanche Jan 10, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 89 | Rangers | L 2–3 OT vs Mammoth Jan 5, 2026 | 51% | −51 |
| 90 | Blues | L 2–4 @ Mammoth Jan 9, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 91 | Penguins | L 0–1 @ Bruins Jan 11, 2026 | 52% | −52 |
| 92 | Capitals | L 2–3 @ Predators Jan 11, 2026 | 53% | −53 |
| 93 | Ducks | L 4–7 @ Capitals Jan 5, 2026 | 54% | −54 |
| 94 | Flames | L 1–5 vs Kraken Jan 5, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 95 | Canucks | L 0–5 @ Maple Leafs Jan 10, 2026 | 55% | −55 |
| 96 | Blackhawks | L 1–5 vs Capitals Jan 9, 2026 | 56% | −56 |
| 97 | Flyers | L 1–2 OT vs Maple Leafs Jan 8, 2026 | 57% | −57 |
| 98 | Kings | L 1–5 @ Jets Jan 9, 2026 | 60% | −60 |
| 99 | Bruins | L 4–7 @ Kraken Jan 6, 2026 | 61% | −61 |
| 100 | Panthers | L 2–6 @ Canadiens Jan 8, 2026 | 61% | −61 |
| 101 | Penguins | L 1–2 vs Flames Jan 10, 2026 | 64% | −64 |
| 102 | Kraken | L 2–3 OT vs Wild Jan 8, 2026 | 64% | −64 |
| 103 | Senators | L 2–3 vs Panthers Jan 10, 2026 | 65% | −65 |
| 104 | Predators | L 0–3 vs Blackhawks Jan 10, 2026 | 65% | −65 |
| 105 | Devils | L 0–9 @ Islanders Jan 6, 2026 | 66% | −66 |
| 106 | Senators | L 3–5 vs Red Wings Jan 5, 2026 | 69% | −69 |
| 107 | Canucks | L 3–5 @ Sabres Jan 6, 2026 | 69% | −69 |
| 108 | Wild | L 3–4 OT vs Islanders Jan 10, 2026 | 70% | −70 |