2025-26 regular season · January 6, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Predators at Oilers, Jan 6, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Oilers beat the Predators 6–2, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Oilers win 9 of 10.
The biggest swing (P1, 11:07 left): Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 7 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Oilers.
Final
 Nashville Predators | 2 |
|---|---|
 Edmonton Oilers | 6 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Oilers about even · −15 Predators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Predators win 1, Oilers win 9.
- 1 NSH 4 EDM 3
- 2 NSH 4 EDM 5
- 3 NSH 3 EDM 5
- 4 NSH 2 EDM 5
- 5 NSH 0 EDM 3
- 6 NSH 2 EDM 6
- 7 NSH 1 EDM 6
- 8 NSH 0 EDM 5
- 9 NSH 1 EDM 8
- 10 NSH 2 EDM 10
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Predators win 15% of them, Oilers 85%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Predators by 3+ | 2.9% |
| Predators by 2 | 2.6% |
| Predators by 1 | 9.5% |
| Oilers by 1 | 10.3% |
| Oilers by 2 | 8.1% |
| Oilers by 3+ | 66.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Predators | 41 | 2 | 2.11 | −0.11 |
 Oilers | 58 | 6 | 5.45 | +0.55 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 11:41 | High sticking on the Predators (Michael McCarron): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% EDM |
| P2 14:58 | Tripping on the Oilers (Alec Regula): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P3 15:35 | Hooking on the Oilers (Matt Savoie): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% NSH |
| P3 13:35 | Hooking on the Predators (Brady Skjei): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% EDM |
When it happened
Oilers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 11:41 | High sticking on the Predators (Michael McCarron): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% EDM | – |
| 2 | P1 11:07 | Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 14% chance | +14% EDM | – |
| 3 | P1 1:08 | Vasily Podkolzin’s snap shot from 18 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance | +3% NSH | – |
| 4 | P2 17:19 | Matt Savoie missed the net with a snap shot from 15 feetShooting · 19% chance | +3% NSH | – |
| 5 | P2 14:58 | Tripping on the Oilers (Alec Regula): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% NSH | – |
| 6 | P2 4:07 | Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 16% chance | +12% EDM | – |
| 7 | P2 3:45 | Curtis Lazar scored on a backhand shot from 11 feetShooting · 10% chance | +6% EDM | – |
| 8 | P3 15:57 | Nick Blankenburg scored on a snap shot from 56 feetShooting · 2% chance | +5% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Predators 4% · Oilers 96%
- Final margin
- Oilers by 4
- Luck in goals
- 0.5 for the Oilers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oilers by 3.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Predators 15% · Oilers 85% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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