2025-26 regular season · January 10, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Canucks at Maple Leafs, Jan 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Maple Leafs beat the Canucks 5–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 25 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
The biggest swing (P1, 11:57 left): Matias Maccelli scored on a deflected shot from 7 feet, worth 14 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.
Final
 Vancouver Canucks | 0 |
|---|---|
 Toronto Maple Leafs | 5 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +55 Maple Leafs lucky · −55 Canucks
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Canucks win 6, Maple Leafs win 4.
- 1 VAN 6 TOR 1
- 2 VAN 3 TOR 0
- 3 VAN 4 TOR 1
- 4 VAN 4 TOR 2
- 5 VAN 3 TOR 2
- 6 VAN 6 TOR 5
- 7 VAN 3 TOR 4
- 8 VAN 3 TOR 4
- 9 VAN 2 TOR 4
- 10 VAN 2 TOR 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Canucks win 55% of them, Maple Leafs 45%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Canucks by 3+ | 25.5% |
| Canucks by 2 | 10.4% |
| Canucks by 1 | 19.6% |
| Maple Leafs by 1 | 21.2% |
| Maple Leafs by 2 | 8.2% |
| Maple Leafs by 3+ | 15.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Canucks | 50 | 0 | 3.44 | −3.44 |
 Maple Leafs | 34 | 5 | 2.70 | +2.30 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 18:22 | Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VAN |
| P1 12:33 | Tripping on the Canucks (Aatu Räty): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% TOR |
| P1 9:36 | Hooking on the Maple Leafs (Auston Matthews): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% VAN |
| P1 6:59 | Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% VAN |
| P1 2:39 | High sticking on the Maple Leafs (Jake McCabe): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% VAN |
| P1 0:03 | Roughing on the Canucks (Drew O'Connor): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% TOR |
| P2 12:36 | Interference on the Maple Leafs (Morgan Rielly): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% VAN |
| P3 11:30 | Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% VAN |
| P3 7:33 | Interference on the Canucks (Elias Pettersson): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% TOR |
| P3 1:09 | Roughing on the Canucks (Kiefer Sherwood): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% TOR |
When it happened
Maple Leafs’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 18:22 | Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% VAN | – |
| 2 | P1 16:12 | Nils Hoglander’s snap shot from 5 feet was savedShooting · 32% chance | +5% TOR | – |
| 3 | P1 12:33 | Tripping on the Canucks (Aatu Räty): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% TOR | – |
| 4 | P1 11:57 | Matias Maccelli scored on a deflected shot from 7 feetShooting · 13% chance | +14% TOR | – |
| 5 | P1 11:18 | Drew O'Connor missed the net with a between-the-legs shot from 4 feetShooting · 27% chance | +5% TOR | – |
| 6 | P1 6:59 | Too many men on the ice on the Maple Leafs (TOR): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% VAN | – |
| 7 | P1 3:29 | Max Domi scored on a wrist shot from 25 feetShooting · 6% chance | +13% TOR | – |
| 8 | P1 0:20 | William Nylander scored on a backhand shot from 6 feetShooting · 11% chance | +8% TOR | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Canucks 31% · Maple Leafs 69%
- Final margin
- Maple Leafs by 5
- Luck in goals
- 4.3 for the Maple Leafs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maple Leafs by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Canucks 55% · Maple Leafs 45% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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