2025-26 regular season · January 10, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Panthers at Senators, Jan 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Senators 3–2, but the replays lean toward the Senators: they take 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 20 points of win probability to the Panthers.
The biggest swing (P2, 6:47 left): Carter Verhaeghe scored on a wrist shot from 36 feet, worth 21 points of win probability to the Panthers.
Final
 Florida Panthers | 3 |
|---|---|
 Ottawa Senators | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +65 Panthers very lucky · −65 Senators
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 4, Senators win 6.
- 1 FLA 3 OTT 0
- 2 FLA 4 OTT 2
- 3 FLA 2 OTT 1
- 4 FLA 3 OTT 2
- 5 FLA 1 OTT 2
- 6 FLA 3 OTT 4
- 7 FLA 1 OTT 3
- 8 FLA 3 OTT 6
- 9 FLA 2 OTT 5
- 10 FLA 0 OTT 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Panthers win 35% of them, Senators 65%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 3+ | 7.9% |
| Panthers by 2 | 7.1% |
| Panthers by 1 | 20.1% |
| Senators by 1 | 21.2% |
| Senators by 2 | 13.3% |
| Senators by 3+ | 30.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers | 32 | 3 | 1.71 | +1.29 |
 Senators | 44 | 2 | 2.97 | −0.97 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:58 | High sticking on the Panthers (Evan Rodrigues): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P1 10:25 | High sticking on the Senators (Artem Zub): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% FLA |
| P1 2:49 | Interference on the Senators (Artem Zub): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P2 18:59 | High sticking on the Panthers (Uvis Balinskis): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% OTT |
| P2 13:57 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Panthers (Carter Verhaeghe): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P2 8:08 | Slashing on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% FLA |
| P2 1:24 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Senators (Shane Pinto): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% FLA |
| P2 1:05 | Boarding on the Panthers (Carter Verhaeghe): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% OTT |
| P3 7:52 | Tripping on the Panthers (Sam Reinhart): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% OTT |
When it happened
Senators’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 15:57 | Fabian Zetterlund scored on a wrist shot from 19 feetShooting · 4% chance | +15% OTT | – |
| 2 | P1 8:26 | Evan Rodrigues scored on a wrist shot from 35 feetShooting · 8% chance | +16% FLA | – |
| 3 | P2 8:08 | Slashing on the Senators (Thomas Chabot): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% FLA | – |
| 4 | P2 6:47 | Carter Verhaeghe scored on a wrist shot from 36 feetShooting · 6% chance | +21% FLA | – |
| 5 | P2 1:24 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Senators (Shane Pinto): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% FLA | – |
| 6 | P2 1:05 | Boarding on the Panthers (Carter Verhaeghe): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% OTT | – |
| 7 | P3 16:12 | Gustav Forsling scored on a slap shot from 39 feetShooting · 5% chance | +15% FLA | – |
| 8 | P3 1:42 | Drake Batherson scored on a tip from 6 feetShooting · 6% chance | +6% OTT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 26% · Senators 74%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.7 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Senators by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 35% · Senators 65% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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