2025-26 regular season · January 11, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Penguins at Bruins, Jan 11, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bruins beat the Penguins 1–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bruins win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 45 points of win probability to the Bruins.
The biggest swing (P1, 9:00 left): Viktor Arvidsson scored on a backhand shot from 8 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bruins.
Final
 Pittsburgh Penguins | 0 |
|---|---|
 Boston Bruins | 1 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Bruins lucky · −52 Penguins
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penguins win 5, Bruins win 5.
- 1 PIT 6 BOS 2
- 2 PIT 4 BOS 1
- 3 PIT 2 BOS 0
- 4 PIT 2 BOS 1
- 5 PIT 3 BOS 2
- 6 PIT 3 BOS 4
- 7 PIT 3 BOS 4
- 8 PIT 0 BOS 2
- 9 PIT 1 BOS 3
- 10 PIT 1 BOS 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.1 replays ended
Penguins win 52% of them, Bruins 48%. The line is what actually happened: Bruins by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penguins by 3+ | 19.7% |
| Penguins by 2 | 10.9% |
| Penguins by 1 | 21.4% |
| Bruins by 1 | 22.9% |
| Bruins by 2 | 9.6% |
| Bruins by 3+ | 15.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Penguins | 43 | 0 | 2.65 | −2.65 |
 Bruins | 37 | 1 | 2.22 | −1.22 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 17:39 | Hooking on the Penguins (Tommy Novak): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P1 13:58 | Hooking on the Penguins (Justin Brazeau): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P1 1:37 | High sticking on the Penguins (Evgeni Malkin): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 15:35 | Holding on the Penguins (Brett Kulak): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 11:25 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Penguins (Brett Kulak): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% BOS |
| P2 8:24 | Interference goalkeeper on the Bruins (Mark Kastelic): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% PIT |
| P3 18:12 | Interference on the Penguins (Justin Brazeau): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% BOS |
| P3 17:37 | Hooking on the Bruins (Casey Mittelstadt): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% PIT |
When it happened
Bruins’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:00 | Viktor Arvidsson scored on a backhand shot from 8 feetShooting · 8% chance | +16% BOS | – |
| 2 | P2 15:35 | Holding on the Penguins (Brett Kulak): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% BOS | – |
| 3 | P2 11:25 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Penguins (Brett Kulak): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% BOS | – |
| 4 | P2 8:24 | Interference goalkeeper on the Bruins (Mark Kastelic): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% PIT | – |
| 5 | P2 1:47 | Anthony Mantha missed the net with a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 23% chanceSidney Crosby’s backhand shot from 17 feet was savedShooting · 4% chance | +6% BOS | – |
| 6 | P3 18:12 | Interference on the Penguins (Justin Brazeau): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% BOS | – |
| 7 | P3 17:37 | Hooking on the Bruins (Casey Mittelstadt): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +5% PIT | – |
| 8 | P3 10:47 | Justin Brazeau’s wrist shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 19% chance | +6% BOS | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penguins 59% · Bruins 41%
- Final margin
- Bruins by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.1 for the Bruins
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penguins by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Penguins 52% · Bruins 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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