luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 8, 2026 · OT

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Maple Leafs at Flyers, Jan 8, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Maple Leafs beat the Flyers 2–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Maple Leafs win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: overtime alone was worth 51 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

The game turned on a luck play (OT): the Maple Leafs won in overtime, worth 51 points of win probability to the Maple Leafs.

Final (OT)

Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Philadelphia Flyers 1

January 8, 2026 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

Luck index +57 Maple Leafs lucky · −57 Flyers

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maple Leafs win 4, Flyers win 6.

  1. 1 TOR 5 PHI 1
  2. 2 TOR 5 PHI 3
  3. 3 TOR 1 PHI 0
  4. 4 TOR 3 PHI 2
  5. 5 TOR 1 PHI 2
  6. 6 TOR 2 PHI 3
  7. 7 TOR 1 PHI 3
  8. 8 TOR 2 PHI 4
  9. 9 TOR 0 PHI 3
  10. 10 TOR 1 PHI 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maple Leafs win 43% of them, Flyers 57%. The line is what actually happened: Maple Leafs by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maple Leafs by 3+15.2%
Maple Leafs by 28.5%
Maple Leafs by 119.7%
Flyers by 122.1%
Flyers by 211.3%
Flyers by 3+23.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.5 goals to the Maple Leafs: the final margin was Maple Leafs by 1, without the luck Flyers by 0.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Maple Leafs4112.40−1.40
Flyers4113.01−2.01

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 1:25 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play +4% PHI
P2 11:20 Holding on the Flyers (Emil Andrae): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P2 8:29 Slashing on the Flyers (Travis Konecny): 2 minutes on the power play +4% TOR
P3 9:01 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Matthew Knies): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI
P3 7:53 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power play +5% PHI

When it happened

Flyers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 87%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Flyers were ahead in it, below while the Maple Leafs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 1:25 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +4% PHI –
2 P2 19:05 Travis Konecny scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% PHI –
3 P2 0:27 Morgan Rielly missed the net with a snap shot from 17 feetShooting · 19% chance +5% PHI –
4 P3 9:01 Slashing on the Maple Leafs (Matthew Knies): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PHI –
5 P3 7:53 Tripping on the Maple Leafs (Troy Stecher): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +5% PHI –
6 P3 5:56 Scott Laughton scored on a wrist shot from 39 feetShooting · 4% chance +35% TOR –
7 P3 5:19 Bobby McMann missed the net with a wrist shot from 7 feetShooting · 20% chance +8% PHI –
8 OT The game turned hereThe Maple Leafs won in overtimeOvertime · overtime is close to a coin flip +51% TOR –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maple Leafs 39% · Flyers 61%

Final margin
Maple Leafs by 1
Luck in goals
1.5 for the Maple Leafs
Luck-adjusted margin
Flyers by 0.5
Replay with same day's form
Maple Leafs 43% · Flyers 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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