2025-26 regular season · January 11, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Capitals at Predators, Jan 11, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Predators beat the Capitals 3–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Predators win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 36 points of win probability to the Predators.
The biggest swing (P3, 18:48 left): Cole Smith scored on a wrist shot from 18 feet, worth 22 points of win probability to the Predators.
Final
 Washington Capitals | 2 |
|---|---|
 Nashville Predators | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +53 Predators lucky · −53 Capitals
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Capitals win 5, Predators win 5.
- 1 WSH 7 NSH 3
- 2 WSH 5 NSH 2
- 3 WSH 3 NSH 1
- 4 WSH 3 NSH 2
- 5 WSH 2 NSH 1
- 6 WSH 2 NSH 3
- 7 WSH 2 NSH 3
- 8 WSH 2 NSH 3
- 9 WSH 1 NSH 3
- 10 WSH 3 NSH 6
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 3,999.9 replays ended
Capitals win 53% of them, Predators 47%. The line is what actually happened: Predators by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Capitals by 3+ | 18.6% |
| Capitals by 2 | 11.3% |
| Capitals by 1 | 23.2% |
| Predators by 1 | 23.8% |
| Predators by 2 | 10.3% |
| Predators by 3+ | 12.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Capitals | 50 | 2 | 3.10 | −1.10 |
 Predators | 37 | 3 | 1.96 | +1.04 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 14:45 | Holding on the Predators (Roman Josi): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WSH |
| P1 14:29 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Predators (Michael McCarron): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WSH |
| P1 6:57 | Holding on the Capitals (Brandon Duhaime): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P1 4:51 | Tripping on the Predators (Erik Haula): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WSH |
| P1 3:31 | Interference on the Capitals (Anthony Beauvillier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% NSH |
| P2 19:04 | Hooking on the Predators (Nick Perbix): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% WSH |
| P2 14:09 | Tripping on the Capitals (Aliaksei Protas): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P2 1:31 | Slashing on the Capitals (Alex Ovechkin): 2 minutes on the power play | +6% NSH |
| P3 18:08 | Holding on the Capitals (Hendrix Lapierre): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P3 17:16 | Delaying game puck over glass on the Capitals (John Carlson): 2 minutes on the power play | +5% NSH |
| P3 11:42 | Tripping on the Predators (Adam Wilsby): 2 minutes on the power play | +2% WSH |
When it happened
Predators’ chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 14:04 | Alex Ovechkin scored on a slap shot from 38 feetShooting · 9% chance | +15% WSH | – |
| 2 | P1 6:45 | Steven Stamkos scored on a slap shot from 28 feetShooting · 9% chance | +16% NSH | – |
| 3 | P3 18:48 | Cole Smith scored on a wrist shot from 18 feetShooting · 12% chance | +22% NSH | – |
| 4 | P3 16:31 | Roman Josi scored on a slap shot from 39 feetShooting · 8% chance | +13% NSH | – |
| 5 | P3 10:57 | Ethen Frank scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 16% chance | +11% WSH | – |
| 6 | P3 1:00 | Aliaksei Protas’s wrist shot from 23 feet was savedShooting · 15% chance | +7% NSH | – |
| 7 | P3 0:36 | Ethen Frank’s wrist shot from 8 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +8% NSH | – |
| 8 | P3 0:28 | Aliaksei Protas’s wrist shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 17% chance | +8% NSH | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Capitals 70% · Predators 30%
- Final margin
- Predators by 1
- Luck in goals
- 1.6 for the Predators
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Capitals by 0.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Capitals 53% · Predators 47% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
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