luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 9, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Capitals at Blackhawks, Jan 9, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Capitals beat the Blackhawks 5–1, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Capitals win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 27 points of win probability to the Capitals.

The biggest swing (P1, 15:57 left): Anthony Beauvillier scored on a backhand shot from 10 feet, worth 15 points of win probability to the Capitals.

Final

Washington Capitals 5
Chicago Blackhawks 1

January 9, 2026 · United Center

Luck index +56 Capitals lucky · −56 Blackhawks

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Capitals win 4, Blackhawks win 6.

  1. 1 WSH 5 CHI 2
  2. 2 WSH 4 CHI 2
  3. 3 WSH 4 CHI 3
  4. 4 WSH 2 CHI 1
  5. 5 WSH 1 CHI 2
  6. 6 WSH 3 CHI 4
  7. 7 WSH 3 CHI 4
  8. 8 WSH 1 CHI 3
  9. 9 WSH 2 CHI 5
  10. 10 WSH 1 CHI 6

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.2 replays ended

Capitals win 44% of them, Blackhawks 56%. The line is what actually happened: Capitals by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Capitals by 3+13.1%
Capitals by 28.0%
Capitals by 122.4%
Blackhawks by 122.1%
Blackhawks by 211.6%
Blackhawks by 3+22.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 goals to the Capitals: the final margin was Capitals by 4, without the luck Capitals by 0.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Capitals3652.18+2.82
Blackhawks4113.01−2.01

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 11:27 Slashing on the Capitals (Justin Sourdif): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P1 10:42 Delaying game puck over glass on the Capitals (Martin Fehérváry): 2 minutes on the power play +4% CHI
P2 18:46 Hooking on the Blackhawks (Ryan Greene): 2 minutes on the power play +2% WSH
P2 13:09 Cross checking on the Capitals (Brandon Duhaime): 2 minutes on the power play +2% CHI
P2 7:06 Roughing on the Blackhawks (Nick Lardis): 2 minutes on the power play +1% WSH
P3 15:40 Tripping on the Capitals (Nic Dowd): 2 minutes on the power play +1% CHI
P3 1:25 Tripping on the Blackhawks (Landon Slaggert): 2 minutes on the power play 0% WSH

When it happened

Blackhawks’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Blackhawks were ahead in it, below while the Capitals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 15:57 Anthony Beauvillier scored on a backhand shot from 10 feetShooting · 7% chance +15% WSH –
2 P1 10:20 Tyler Bertuzzi hit the crossbar with a backhand shot from 3 feetShooting · 27% chance +5% WSH –
3 P1 9:35 Tyler Bertuzzi’s snap shot from 6 feet was savedShooting · 34% chance +6% WSH –
4 P1 4:53 Connor McMichael scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 12% chance +13% WSH –
5 P1 1:06 Ethen Frank scored on a wrist shot from 14 feetShooting · 11% chance +9% WSH –
6 P2 12:04 Tyler Bertuzzi’s snap shot from 4 feet was savedShooting · 48% chance +4% WSH –
7 P2 11:12 Oliver Moore scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 6% chance +9% CHI –
8 P2 7:22 Justin Sourdif scored on a wrist shot from 5 feetShooting · 24% chance +7% WSH –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Capitals 53% · Blackhawks 47%

Final margin
Capitals by 4
Luck in goals
3.6 for the Capitals
Luck-adjusted margin
Capitals by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Capitals 44% · Blackhawks 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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