2025-26 regular season · January 10, 2026
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Red Wings at Canadiens, Jan 10, 2026: who deserved to win?
The Red Wings beat the Canadiens 4–0, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Red Wings win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: shooting alone was worth 23 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
The biggest swing (P2, 15:08 left): Lucas Raymond scored on a snap shot from 12 feet, worth 16 points of win probability to the Red Wings.
Final
 Detroit Red Wings | 4 |
|---|---|
 Montreal Canadiens | 0 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +41 Red Wings lucky · −41 Canadiens
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Red Wings win 6, Canadiens win 4.
- 1 DET 7 MTL 2
- 2 DET 4 MTL 1
- 3 DET 3 MTL 0
- 4 DET 4 MTL 2
- 5 DET 2 MTL 1
- 6 DET 5 MTL 4
- 7 DET 4 MTL 5
- 8 DET 3 MTL 4
- 9 DET 2 MTL 4
- 10 DET 1 MTL 4
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Red Wings win 59% of them, Canadiens 41%. The line is what actually happened: Red Wings by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Red Wings by 3+ | 26.4% |
| Red Wings by 2 | 11.7% |
| Red Wings by 1 | 20.6% |
| Canadiens by 1 | 20.9% |
| Canadiens by 2 | 8.9% |
| Canadiens by 3+ | 11.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Red Wings | 36 | 3 | 2.86 | +0.14 |
 Canadiens | 49 | 0 | 2.95 | −2.95 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 13:01 | Holding the stick on the Canadiens (Alexandre Carrier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P1 9:17 | High sticking on the Canadiens (Brendan Gallagher): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 18:29 | Holding on the Canadiens (Alexandre Texier): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P2 10:30 | Holding the stick on the Red Wings (Emmitt Finnie): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% MTL |
| P2 8:23 | Too many men on the ice on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% DET |
| P3 9:12 | Roughing on the Canadiens (Oliver Kapanen): 2 minutes on the power play | 0% DET |
When it happened
Canadiens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 54%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 9:17 | High sticking on the Canadiens (Brendan Gallagher): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DET | – |
| 2 | P1 3:21 | Michael Rasmussen’s snap shot from 7 feet was savedShooting · 23% chance | +4% MTL | – |
| 3 | P2 18:29 | Holding on the Canadiens (Alexandre Texier): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DET | – |
| 4 | P2 15:08 | Lucas Raymond scored on a snap shot from 12 feetShooting · 21% chance | +16% DET | – |
| 5 | P2 10:30 | Holding the stick on the Red Wings (Emmitt Finnie): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% MTL | – |
| 6 | P2 8:23 | Too many men on the ice on the Canadiens (MTL): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% DET | – |
| 7 | P2 8:17 | Dylan Larkin scored on a snap shot from 29 feetShooting · 14% chance | +14% DET | – |
| 8 | P3 19:26 | Alex DeBrincat scored on a slap shot from 28 feetShooting · 15% chance | +6% DET | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Red Wings 76% · Canadiens 24%
- Final margin
- Red Wings by 4
- Luck in goals
- 2.6 for the Red Wings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Red Wings by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Red Wings 59% · Canadiens 41% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 14, 2025-26
- Canucks at Sabres Jan 6, 2026 · BUF 5–3 · replay 31% for the winner
- Red Wings at Senators Jan 5, 2026 · DET 5–3 · replay 31% for the winner
- Panthers at Senators Jan 10, 2026 · FLA 3–2 · replay 35% for the winner
- Panthers at Canadiens Jan 8, 2026 · MTL 6–2 · replay 39% for the winner
- Bruins at Kraken Jan 6, 2026 · SEA 7–4 · replay 39% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Flyers Jan 8, 2026 · TOR 2–1 OT · replay 43% for the winner
- Canucks at Maple Leafs Jan 10, 2026 · TOR 5–0 · replay 45% for the winner
- Penguins at Bruins Jan 11, 2026 · BOS 1–0 · replay 48% for the winner
- Senators at Mammoth Jan 7, 2026 · UTA 3–1 · replay 52% for the winner
- Avalanche at Lightning Jan 6, 2026 · TBL 4–2 · replay 54% for the winner
- Flames at Bruins Jan 8, 2026 · BOS 4–1 · replay 56% for the winner
- Sabres at Rangers Jan 8, 2026 · BUF 5–2 · replay 58% for the winner