luckadjusted
NHL Week 1 · 2026-27

2025-26 regular season · January 8, 2026

No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

Oilers at Jets, Jan 8, 2026: who deserved to win?

The Oilers beat the Jets 4–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: shooting alone was worth 13 points of win probability to the Jets.

The game turned on a luck play (P3, 11:41 left): Zach Hyman scored on a wrist shot from 15 feet, worth 28 points of win probability to the Oilers. The biggest single swing (P3, 9:23 left): Evan Bouchard scored on a snap shot from 33 feet.

Final

Edmonton Oilers 4
Winnipeg Jets 3

January 8, 2026 · Canada Life Centre

Luck index +37 Oilers lucky · −37 Jets

Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oilers win 6, Jets win 4.

  1. 1 EDM 5 WPG 0
  2. 2 EDM 5 WPG 2
  3. 3 EDM 3 WPG 0
  4. 4 EDM 5 WPG 3
  5. 5 EDM 2 WPG 1
  6. 6 EDM 5 WPG 4
  7. 7 EDM 1 WPG 2
  8. 8 EDM 1 WPG 2
  9. 9 EDM 2 WPG 4
  10. 10 EDM 2 WPG 5

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

No closing line for this game.

Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.

Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000.1 replays ended

Oilers win 63% of them, Jets 37%. The line is what actually happened: Oilers by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oilers by 3+29.0%
Oilers by 212.2%
Oilers by 121.9%
Jets by 121.0%
Jets by 26.8%
Jets by 3+9.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 goals to the Jets: the final margin was Oilers by 1, without the luck Oilers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).
ShootingUnblocked attemptsGoalsExpected goalsAbove expected
Oilers4243.05+0.95
Jets3131.95+1.05

Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).

Calls

Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.

WhenCallWin probability for
P1 14:07 Slashing on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power play +4% EDM
P1 5:50 Slashing on the Oilers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins): 2 minutes on the power play +4% WPG
P3 10:39 Delaying game puck over glass on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power play +7% EDM
P3 5:36 High sticking on the Oilers (Jack Roslovic): 2 minutes on the power play +6% WPG

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score and the time left, starting from the betting line (or the home edge alone when there is none), with goals at the league’s rates for the score. Overtime is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Oilers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 P1 8:49 Kyle Connor scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 16% chance +14% WPG –
2 P1 2:58 Vasily Podkolzin scored on a wrist shot from 11 feetShooting · 11% chance +16% EDM –
3 P1 1:44 Tanner Pearson scored on a wrist shot from 9 feetShooting · 3% chance +17% WPG –
4 P1 1:04 Josh Morrissey scored on a snap shot from 37 feetShooting · 5% chance +13% WPG –
5 P2 0:21 Connor McDavid scored on a wrist shot from 6 feetShooting · 16% chance +12% EDM –
6 P3 11:41 The game turned hereZach Hyman scored on a wrist shot from 15 feetShooting · 7% chance +28% EDM –
7 P3 10:39 Delaying game puck over glass on the Jets (Nino Niederreiter): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls +7% EDM –
8 P3 9:23 Evan Bouchard scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 13% chance +29% EDM –

Adjust the assumptions

Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oilers 70% · Jets 30%

Final margin
Oilers by 1
Luck in goals
0.1 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Oilers by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Oilers 63% · Jets 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts
Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a goal becomes a save, a post goes in, a penalty goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.

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