2025-26 regular season · December 23, 2025
No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
Panthers at Hurricanes, Dec 23, 2025: who deserved to win?
The Panthers beat the Hurricanes 5–2, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: goaltending alone was worth 42 points of win probability to the Panthers.
The game turned on a luck play (P3, 13:43 left): Luke Kunin scored on a snap shot from 28 feet, worth 26 points of win probability to the Panthers. The biggest single swing (P3, 13:00 left): Anton Lundell scored on a snap shot from 27 feet.
Final
 Florida Panthers | 5 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Hurricanes | 2 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Panthers lucky · −49 Hurricanes
Each team’s own shots from this game, resampled into new games 4,000 times, each a goal at its chance, with the power plays the penalties gave and the pulled goalie at the end: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Hurricanes win 5.
- 1 FLA 6 CAR 2
- 2 FLA 5 CAR 2
- 3 FLA 4 CAR 2
- 4 FLA 4 CAR 3
- 5 FLA 2 CAR 1
- 6 FLA 3 CAR 4
- 7 FLA 4 CAR 5
- 8 FLA 1 CAR 3
- 9 FLA 1 CAR 4
- 10 FLA 2 CAR 5
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before puck drop
No closing line for this game.
Same teams, fresh game
Needs the closing line, which this game has not got.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every shot redrawn at its chance, overtime and the shootout replayed as near coin flips; the shots themselves and every call fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000.2 replays ended
Panthers win 51% of them, Hurricanes 49%. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Panthers by 3+ | 18.6% |
| Panthers by 2 | 10.6% |
| Panthers by 1 | 21.7% |
| Hurricanes by 1 | 23.3% |
| Hurricanes by 2 | 10.6% |
| Hurricanes by 3+ | 15.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A post hit in a blowout counts for nothing; the same post with a minute left in a tie game can be most of a win.
| Shooting | Unblocked attempts | Goals | Expected goals | Above expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Panthers | 42 | 5 | 2.52 | +2.48 |
 Hurricanes | 43 | 2 | 2.41 | −0.41 |
Regulation with both goalies in. Expected goals: our model of each shot’s chance from where and how it was taken (distance, angle, shot type, rebound, rush, strength), adjusted for the shooter’s and the goalie’s records. A team above expected finished better or met a weaker night in goal; 75% of the gap counts as luck (why that share).
Calls
Every penalty that put a team on the power play, and every goal taken off the board on review, with what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment. Calls don’t count toward luck by default: who draws penalties repeats from game to game like a skill (how calls are valued). Switch them on below.
| When | Call | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| P1 6:41 | Interference on the Panthers (Gustav Forsling): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% CAR |
| P1 5:58 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jesperi Kotkaniemi): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P1 0:12 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power play | +4% FLA |
| P2 7:08 | Interference on the Panthers (Jesper Boqvist): 2 minutes on the power play | +3% CAR |
| P3 5:16 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (K'Andre Miller): 2 minutes on the power play | +1% FLA |
| P3 0:04 | High sticking double minor on the Hurricanes (Mark Jankowski): 4 minutes on the power play | 0% FLA |
When it happened
Hurricanes’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | P1 15:49 | Eric Robinson scored on a snap shot from 33 feetShooting · 8% chance | +15% CAR | – |
| 2 | P1 5:58 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Jesperi Kotkaniemi): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% FLA | – |
| 3 | P1 0:12 | Tripping on the Hurricanes (Andrei Svechnikov): 2 minutes on the power playPenalty calls | +4% FLA | – |
| 4 | P2 18:02 | Andrei Svechnikov scored on a snap shot from 22 feetShooting · 15% chance | +12% CAR | – |
| 5 | P3 16:07 | Niko Mikkola scored on a slap shot from 52 feetShooting · 3% chance | +14% FLA | – |
| 6 | P3 13:43 | The game turned hereLuke Kunin scored on a snap shot from 28 feetShooting · 10% chance | +26% FLA | – |
| 7 | P3 13:00 | Anton Lundell scored on a snap shot from 27 feetShooting · 7% chance | +28% FLA | – |
| 8 | P3 10:03 | Sam Bennett scored on a wrist shot from 24 feetShooting · 6% chance | +13% FLA | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Think finishing is more skill than we do, or that the calls were luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Panthers 70% · Hurricanes 30%
- Final margin
- Panthers by 3
- Luck in goals
- 2.2 for the Panthers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Panthers by 0.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Panthers 51% · Hurricanes 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play from the NHL via fastRhockey; expected goals, in-game win probability and the replays are our own models, fitted on every game since 2018-19 (methodology and validation). Blocked shots aren’t replayed (their location is the block’s, not the shot’s). No betting line for this game, so there is no before-puck-drop or fresh-game number.
More from week 12, 2025-26
- Flyers at Kraken Dec 28, 2025 · SEA 4–1 · replay 25% for the winner
- Sabres at Senators Dec 23, 2025 · BUF 3–2 OT · replay 29% for the winner
- Lightning at Panthers Dec 27, 2025 · TBL 4–2 · replay 31% for the winner
- Canadiens at Lightning Dec 28, 2025 · TBL 5–4 SO · replay 35% for the winner
- Rangers at Capitals Dec 23, 2025 · NYR 7–3 · replay 41% for the winner
- Stars at Red Wings Dec 23, 2025 · DET 4–3 OT · replay 42% for the winner
- Devils at Islanders Dec 23, 2025 · NYI 2–1 · replay 46% for the winner
- Penguins at Blackhawks Dec 28, 2025 · PIT 7–3 · replay 46% for the winner
- Canadiens at Bruins Dec 23, 2025 · MTL 6–2 · replay 49% for the winner
- Senators at Maple Leafs Dec 27, 2025 · TOR 7–5 · replay 54% for the winner
- Blues at Lightning Dec 22, 2025 · TBL 4–1 · replay 56% for the winner
- Maple Leafs at Red Wings Dec 28, 2025 · DET 3–2 OT · replay 57% for the winner